| Air quality model can be used as a decision tool for testing air quality variation under a system of air pollution input and air quality response. Air quality modeling system was used by our analysis for air quality scenario simulation. AERMOD modeling system was employed by this article for simulation of Kunming city the capital city of Yunnan province. The scenario simulation was under the emission reduction targets in the latest national the "12th"5years plan. Simulation pollutants are SO2, NOx and PM10, the year of basic is2009and the year of scenario is the end year of the "12th"5years plan. The modeling area is the7prefectures of Kunming city. The target of this analysis is to realize the air quality alteration after emission of modeling area reduced. After simulation results, the suggestions of air pollution management were given by us.(1) First of all, according to the detailed situations of Kunming city, modeling areas was divided into seven regions. The gride processes of modeling area were conducted and calculated point were also marked on the modeling area map. These works will guarantee the follow-up work.(2) For the running of modeling system and accuracy of modeling result, basic data for model were paid much attention in our article. All basic data were collected from official data, and the terrain data and meteorology data were also collected by official observations. The established emission inventories of our analysis were based on the collected data and Predecessors’ research achievements.(3) Previous research was conducted and the scenario simulation can not be established in PM10simulation. Due to the average meteorological data can not be used as PM10future simulation. So the simulation of PM10in reference year was conducted. The confirmation of model was based on PM10simulation. APIs of air quality in certain city were recorded by Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People’s Republic of China, and published on the web set. So modeling test were based on API derived PM10concentrations and simulation results. The confirmation result shows the modeling results can be trusted. The PM10simulation results of central city were reviewed and the concentration of whole central city was under0.12mg/m3, and there are still some high concentration areas. (4) The emission reduction targets of SO2and NOx "12th" five years plan were used as base scenario of our analysis. The plan of city development, vehicle population celebration was also considered in inventory establishment.(5) The simulation results were showed in three ways. Top concentration, calculation point and pollution distribution comparison between reference year and scenario year were conducted. From the top concentration results, expect the NOx concentration of the central city, seven area of Kunming city in SO2and NOx pollution, top concentration of every modeling area were all reduced in2015by compare with the year of2009. Reduction levels of every area are different. Pollution distribution of SO2and NOx were all shrink, and the levels of them were also different. But the original high leveled areas were still high level, concentrations in some of these places will still higher than air quality standards.Further conclusions below can be drawn: different levels of air quality improvement will be achieved after the same level of reduction in emission for different type of pollutant, varied level of pollution source intensity and distinct topography condition. The improvement will be more significant for the regions whose ambient concentration of pollutants is high in the base year. But there are still serious polluted areas in these regions in the scenario year. The hourly results show more sensitive response to the emission control than the daily results. The decreasing of the ambient concentration of pollutant may not be in direct proportion to the reduction of emission, and may not guarantee the significant shrinkage of the pollutant allocation.(6) After all analysis, the suggestions to air quality management were given. |
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