The Application Of System Dynamics In Environmental Sustainability

Dr. Brown in the United States putted forward the two patterns of human economic development, namely the model of A and B. A model is a kind of common coupling development situation, which is the destruction of resource development. B mode is a mode of ecological priority, namely that the material consumption and environmental pressure drop with the economic growing at the same time, which is also an ideal mode for economic operation. But limited to the current stage of development in our country, and the existing technology and management ability, it is impossible to use the higher model of development advocated by Brown immediately. Professor ZhuDaJian puts forward a development mode which conforms to the doctrine of the mean philosophy in our country according to the current development status in our country, namely C model. C model is adapted to present stage development mode of resource productivity in our country, and close to China’s gradual reform idea. This topic uses the basic theory of system dynamics, simulation analysis was carried out on the factor of sustainable development by using Stella modeling software, building a system dynamics model, and adding indexes of the GDP, the gross output value of industrial, the output value of the tertiary industry, the energy input, population, and grain output, calculating the ecological efficiency of our country since1990, analyzing the present development model and putting forward reasonable suggestions based on the model. This paper calculates the ecological efficiency based on the material flow method in our country, and simulates the future development status of our country, then it is concluded that by2020the economic goal of quadrupling GDP and doubling material consumption. Finally we get the ecological efficiency of our country. In this paper, we use the method of system dynamics theory, and the sustainable development model is established by Stella software. The model consist of population subsystem, economic subsystem (including GDP, agriculture, industry, service industry), pollution subsystem, and resources subsystem. The indexes of the GDP, the gross output value of industrial, the output value of the tertiary industry, the energy input, population, and grain output are added in the model. We update the Stella model and compare with the simulation numerical. At last it concludes our country development present situation, and it is concluded that to achieve the economic goals of the quadruple GDP in2020, through reduction of material development strategy suitable for China’s development path, namely the material by half of materialized development path.