Study On Sustainable Development Of Energy-Economy-Enviroment System

Whereas the environmental issues concerned all over the world have close relationship with the energy production and application, it is effective and immediate to resort to energy department for solution to the sustainable development problem. Therefore, in reference of the "Sustainable Energy Development" concept put forward by Munasinghe(1994), the author explores to combine it with policy issues of energy, economy and environment to set up a conformitive decision-making frame of 3E to support the exploitation and employment strategy of national natural resources and thus bring sustainable energy development into the programming and implementation of policies, taking economic efficiency, energy efficiency, energy saving and environmental protection into consideration.Based on this notion, the thesis focuses on:1. Researching energy development on the basis of sustainable development and especially putting environmental element as the main research body, not a simple testing criterion, therefore carrying out the notion of coordinating energy development with economic development and environmental protection. Meanwhile, in the process of applying system dynamics method to build a model to study 3E system, the majority of the parameters are considered as endogenous variables and only a few such as population are regarded as exogenous variables of the system in the model. Therefore, it is the system itself that adjusts each subsystem to keep balance and keep sustainable development. That is also the feature and advantage of adopting system dynamics method to study 3E system.2. Introducing the influence of adjustment and perception delays according to the characteristics of energy capital investment to add disequilibrium characteristic into the model because of the disunity of the present expectation profits and the real profits of the investment. In addition, the author introduces the endogenous technology progress based on "learning curve" and the autonomous exogenous technology progress when describing the function of technological creation. All those approaches get the model more believable. 3. Introducing policy factor as the endogenous variable of the system in the analysis, that is, the government guarantees the sustainable development of energy through energy tax control. Besides, the simulation process of the system realizes the simultaneity of protecting environment and boosting energy industry development fully by taxation.4. Introducing welfare function as testing criterion in the process of dynamics simulation and adopting welfare economics method to study energy issues and thus emphasizing the importance of individual welfare and social welfare.5. Building the cointegration model of China energy demand which proves to be effective and analyzing the factors affecting energy demand.