Study On Variation Characteristics Of Weather-sensitive Diseases In Nanjing And Application Of GAM Model

In order to effectively analyze the impact of weather conditions in the Nanjing region of weather-sensitive diseases, and to improve the level of health meteorological services of resident, this paper was based on the data of resident population of daily mortality and meteorological data from2004to2010in Nanjing, which describing spatial and temporal distributions of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, respiratory diseases leading to death and cold wave season. Makingthecold waveasrisk factors, holiday effect, long-term trends and short-term trends of the time series as confounding factors, using generalized additive model (generalized additive model, GAM) to study the effect of the death occurrence of weather-sensitive diseases in cold wave, then quantifying the impact with relative risk (RR), analyzing gender differences and age differences for two different diseases.The results of the article findings are as follows:(1) Mortality of Nanjing caused by cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases shows the highest in every January, lowest in June or July, in which the proportion of the three age groups(under the age of25,25-44,45-59yearold) showed a downward trend, the proportion of male is higher than female, while rising over the age of60, in which the proportion of women is higher than men; incidence of deaths from respiratory diseases is highest in winter and lowest in summer, showing a downward trend, the crowd decline in the proportion of the age of25and over the age of60, the proportion of25-44yearold and45-59yearold increased, of which the proportion of women is higher than men in25-44year old.(2) During cold wave minimum temperature lag of the role of men and women in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases for2d, extended to4d lag of people over the age of60,followed by the male, has little effect on the population under the age of60.In addition to the daily minimum temperature in patients with the disease influence the weather elements daily average relative humidity, the lag0-2d. The average daily temperature in the cold wave days before the female patients of respiratory diseases has the greatest impact, followed by people over the age of60.(3) The lagged effect of the daily average relative humidity affecting the death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases on men, women, people who over60years is0d,2d,0-ld, Od. At the order of magnitude of the impact:cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases leading to death, people over the age of60, women, men.The amendment is different for different dependent variable GAM model can be used as a time-series studies of cardiovascular disease deaths.(4) The incidence of cold wave in Nanjing was highest in March nearly7years, for low temperature rising, the incidence of cold wave was generally stable.During cold wave temperature and daily average relative humidity are the meteorological effect elements.