The Development And Cognitive Enhancement On Children’s Judgement Of Expected Value

Expected value (EV) of the research on children’s development of probability reasoning plays an important role. Understanding of chance and probability is the individual in the uncertain world of existence of a basic adaptability tool, expectations and understanding ability is to increase the probability of the main channel.According to expected value judgment of the Expected standard model (addition rule), selected city primary school general7(n=30),9(n=30),11(n=30), for measuring wheel tasks and Swanson Cognitive Processing Test (S-CPT), to explore the expectations for children to judge the age development characteristics and the influence of working memory on its role;7years old(n=60),9years old(n=60) elementary school of city selected, with "pretest-intervention-posttest" experimental steps, the expectation of judgment in the average error of young children (aged7and9years old) with different contents of intervention (intervention of probability, intervention of conservation), probing different expected value judgment and the promoting effect of intervention on children. Through the analysis and discussion of the results, this study reached the following conclusions:(1)Children in the event of an uncertain can’t relatively reasonable decisions. On probability event, different age children cognitive ability adopted the different strategy of judgments. Expectations determine types have different characteristics of different age children, younger children showed more average error;(2)Working memory can influence children’s expectations of judgment. Good subjects in working memory during expectations determine a reasonable use of addition rule, bad subjects in working memory when the expected value judgment showed an average error. This affects children’s treatment of uncertainty in the attitude to risk.(3)The cognitive ability affect children’s expected value judgment. Average error the expected value judgment on Lower cognitive ability of children, and addition rule occurs on high cognitive ability of children in the expected value judgment.(4)Through to the average error intervene with probability content of conservation in children, intervention can improve children’s judgments about uncertain event cognitive processing, and provide the correct judgment of uncertain events for children.