Simulation Study On Land Use Change In Dianchi Lake Basin Based On CA And Multi - Agent

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change(LUCC) is the essential content of the study ofthe current global environmental change and sustainable development, has a profoundinfluence on regional water cycle, atmospheric circulation, environmental quality,climate change and terrestrial ecosystem.People in the process to promotesocio-economic development using land directly caused dramatic changes in land useand land cover，had a huge impact on the ecological environment, ecologicalbenefits.In recent decades, with the economic development and urban scale expansionof Kunming, increased the pressure on ecological environment in Dianchi Lake Basin,water wascontaminated, leading to severe eutrophication of lakes, Dianchi Lake isfacing a serious water pollution dilemma.A large number of domestic and foreignresearch shows that，unreasonable land utilization and scientific land management ofthe basin can cause soil erosion, and then leads to soil erosion and nutrient loss withsurface runoff, thus causing large areas of the watershed polluted by non-point source，thereforethe study of land use change has an important ecological significance.The complexity of LUCC determines that it is important to conduct the study ofLUCC using complex system theories, thereforethis study uses multi-agent, CellularAutomata (CA) and GIS technology,from the watershed scale simulated land use/land cover change and analysis the spatial pattern of variation, have importantsignificance for seeking rational development of the ecological environment andprotect ecological safety of basin watershed.GIS is used to get the spatial variables,ANN instead of complex transformation rules is used to obtain the parameters,thismethod significantly simplifies the structure of the CA model and the definition oftransformation rules.Multi-Agent embodies the people’s itiativeofthe relationshipbetween people and land, but CA is more focused on land, they complement eachother, making the model closer to reality.The LUCC model uses land use type of2002of Dianchi Lake Basin as an initialto simulate land use type of2013and evaluates the accuracy of the simulation resultsby Lee-Sallee index and point to point accuracy. After repeated calibration parameters, the final accuracy of the simulation results, point to point reached70.0729%,Lee-Salle index also exceeded0.5, meet the accuracy requirements. After meetingaccuracy requirements, predicted the land use spatial structure in2024of DianchiLake Basin.Thesimulation results is of great significance to strengthen the protectionof the Dianchi Lake Basin, coordinate Valley Economic Development, optimize theallocation of watershed resources, and provide decision-making reference for thesustainable development of the watershed.