A Comparative Analysis Of The Negotiation Stand And Policy Of International Climate Change In The "Four Kingdoms" Of Cancun Conference

The carbon emission targets for2020pledged by “the Basic Four”, Brazil, China,India and South Africa in the Cancun Agreement as part of the negotiating process fora post-Kyoto climate policy regime show different stringency. This paper applies thetwo-level interest based model to analyze the domestic and international factors thataffect the changes in the stances of the Basic four countries, i.e. Brazil, China, Indiaand South Africa on international climate change negotiations since the16th sessionof the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Climate Change Conference inCancun.This study finds the Basic four countries’ stances are determined crucially bymitigation capability, which involves per capita income, energy endowment,economic and energy structure; and ecological vulnerability, which consists of suchsub-factors as reduction in agriculture output, sea-level rise, and climate-relatednatural disasters does not play a decisive role. In the international perspective, theinfluences of financial and technology transfer from the developed countries, themitigation pledges and efforts of the developed countries and international pressurefor the Basic four countries are also analyzed and compared. The paper concludes thatmitigation capability determines largely the Basic four countries’ stances oninternational climate change negotiations. Brazil has the strongest mitigationcapability, South Africa ranks the second, China the third, and India the weakest. Thus,among the four countries, Brazil has adopted the most stringent climate change policy.With increasing economic strength and international pressure, China might adoptmore stringent climate policies, while in the foreseeable future, China and India areunlikely to adopt more stringent mitigation policies than Brazil and South Africa. TheBasic four countries’ stances on international climate change negotiations mightfurther diverge. This paper suggests that despite increasing international pressure,China should engage actively in the international climate change negotiations andadopt creative and constructive strategies to solve the existing domestic problems, defend the justifiable right of development and on the other hand, establish andmaintain its good image as a responsible state, implement its great power strategy onthe climate changes negotiations.