The Study On Safety Distance Based On Coordinate Transformation And Monte Carlo Analysis

According to incomplete statistics, there have been more than 60 chemical industrial parks at the provincial level or above in China so far. Besides achieving efficient utilization of resources and unified management of pollution, chemical industrial park also brings the corresponding environmental and safety issues. The datum of chemical incidents at home and abroad were collected and analyzed, it is indicated that the amount of the hazardous chemicals, the deficiency of the distance between the hazard and the surroundings, the deficiency of the distance between the hazards and the layout of the hazards were the main causes for heavy casualties and serious economic losses. So it is very urgent to research and determine the safety distance of chemical industrial park for the planners.In this paper, several determination methods of the safety distance and the research progress were discussed. The related definitions of safety distance were summarized as well. Through comparison and analysis, some problems were found in the domestic research of determination methods of the safety distance. On one hand, Gaussian diffusion model assumed that wind conditions should be constant in the process of dispersion, which was not always the case in practical applications. On the other hand, there is a deviation in the forecast results because of model parameter uncertainty.On the basis of the classical Gaussian model, coordinate transformation was combined to build the gas diffusion model which adapted to dynamic wind conditions. By combining consequence-based approach and Monte Carlo analysis, a more reasonable safety distance determination method of the chemical industrial park was primarily established. This method solved the problem of parameter uncertainty to some extent.Taking Dalian Songmu island chemical industrial park as an example, the determination method of the safety distance was used in practice. According to the results of the analysis, we could get the corresponding risk assessment conclusion which has important reference significance for the construction development and security planning of the chemical industrial park.