The Evolution Model Of Regional Disaster Consequence Based On Cellular Automata

In recent years, different kinds of emergency events have caused a large number of casualties and loss of property, posing a great threat to economic development and social stability. The severity of disaster consequences, which is showed by the damage of hazard-affected bodies, is determined by the intensity of hazards, the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies and the regional emergency response capacity. Even if the same type of emergencies occurred in different areas, the disaster consequences will not be the same. Therefore, studying the development trends of the disaster consequences through the evolutionary model, can help for disaster prevention and mitigation, which is of great significance.Firstly, this paper do some theoretical research on the evolutionary model of disaster consequences:collecting related studies and data of all types of disaster loss assessment and extracting major hazard-affected bodies of typical emergencies, as well as their different states in the events. On this basis, analyze the process and influencing factors of different disaster events and define the content of disaster consequence and disaster consequence evolution in this study. Introduce the basic components of cellular automata model and analyze the similarity between elements of cellular automata model and disaster consequence evolution.Based on the analysis of disaster consequence evolution, the relationship between land-use type and distribution of hazard-affected bodies can be established thrrough the index of land-use type. Introduce two current national standards of land-use classification and the differences between them. For different categories of hazard-affected bodies, analyze which land-use classification criteria should be choose. Based on the survey data calculated by the two standards, statistical analysis on land-use structure of different administrative regions is done. Then, this paper put forward the assumption about the distribution of hazard-affected bodies and analyze the distribution of some major hazard-affected bodies using that assunption.Based on the above works, the evolutionary model of single land-use type and multi land-use type are constructed respectively, in which the rules are established for specific events. To simulate the inhomogeneous distribution of the hazard-affected bodies, the neighborhood rule of standard cellular automata model is extended. By setting different simulation scenarios and the analysis of simulation results, the impact of vulnerability, spatial distribution and other factors on disaster consequence is studied. Because of these factors, the same emergency events happened in different areas may cause different disaster consequences. At last, this paper try applying the model to predict seismic losses of the buildings. The simulation results show that the model can be applied to more events through reasonable rules.