Songhua River Basin Water Environmental Quality Prediction Based On Time Series Analysis

Songhua River rises in the Tianchi in Changbai Mountain, is an important source of water supply sources in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin two. As a river’s largest,Songhua River water quality is very important. But Songhua River Valley industrial,agricultural producing areas of focus, heavy industry is the heavy industrial structure leads to serious pollution of water environmental quality, water environmental quality detection is very important to the watershed water quality improvement, and the water quality index prediction for the control and reduction of pollutant generation and discharge support technology has important significance, but also the theory of management water environment.This paper studies using single factor water quality identification index method and comprehensive water quality identification index of water quality evaluation research on the 7 section of the dissolved oxygen, the Songhua River basin 2004~2014 years of Potassium Permanganate index and ammonia nitrogen index. The results showed, the water quality situation of each section are improved to different degree after 2004, the water quality in main stream and tributaries of the basic in between the class II and class III, class IV and class V smaller proportion. The main pollutants are ammonia nitrogen index and the Songhua River basin Potassium Permanganate index.The 7 section method is applied in this paper to test the selected in this paper time series analysis, including Heilongjiang Heihe, has carried on the analysis of water environment quality trend.A, through the water environmental pollution index trend analysis, concentration change trend of comprehensive index of organic pollution in the Songhua River basin Potassium Permanganate index downward trend, ammonia nitrogen index decreased significantly, the other indexes changed little.The concentration of DO, the change trend of different level two water district analysis that Nenjiang area show no obvious trend, NH3-N, CODMn index levels were significantly increased, water quality has the drop tendency. The concentration of DO second in Songhua River region showed a significant decline, NH3-N, CODMn index levels were decreased significantly. Results showed that the organic pollution in the second Songhua River area is reduced, water quality improved significantly. Theconcentration of DO of Songhua River river area showed no obvious trend,CODMn index levels were significantly decreased, NH3-N index performance is significantly increased, showed that the CODMn pollution in the mainstream of the Songhua River is reduced, NH3-N increased slightly, the overall water quality showed gradual improvement trend.Then, this paper carry on the time series analysis and prediction study of cross section using SAS software. Analysis shows that, the research of timing are non smooth white noise sequence, the establishment of AR(m) model, and through the part parameter test and fitting statistics test, the model fitting effect is good. The forecast data are limited to 8 days, to predict the future value of the index, the section of the monitoring and management of great significance. The prediction results show that the,...