Evaluation And Forecast Of Economy, Trade And Environment Coordination In Blue Economic Area Of ​​Shandong Peninsula

In recent years, with the excellent geographical advantage and solid industrial base, Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone has made brilliant achievements in economic development. However, because of the traditional economic pattern and single energy structure, the blue area will encounter various problems in the next development. On the one hand, the contradiction between economic development and environment has appeared. Air quality is becoming poorer and natural resources gradually decreased. On the other hand, it is difficult for the traditional economic structure to form an effective pull on economic development; the slow growth of the world economics and the adjustment of domestic economic structure have made the domestic demand weak, and industrial manufactured goods demand tends to saturation. Under this situation, the traditional economic model needs to be improved. In order to enhance the total economy and protect ecological environment, the blue area shuould find a way not only to ensure the total economic growth but improve the quality of economic development at the same time.According to the relevant theory, this paper made the comprehensive evaluation and forecast on the coordinated economic development and environment of the blue area, analysing the status of the economy and environment in the blue region from the angle of sustainable development. Combined with previous research and expert advice, this paper used DPSIR framework to classify economy, energy, environment and other factors based on the causal relationship, and then built economic and environment coordinated development system for the blue area. From the subjective and objective aspects of comprehensive evaluationfor weight index system, this paper found that several aspects of industrial structure such as trade structure, energy demand, new energy, science and technology progress played an important role in the economic environment in the blue zone system. At the same time this paper used the development index and coordination degree evaluation method to make comprehensive evaluation on the overall development level of the blue zone, and found that the coordination degree shows slowly increasing trend in the overall coordination. From 2003 to 2012, its coordination has been intermediate coordination from the primary one. The blue zone has a good development trend in economic development, environmental governance, environmental condition and effect of residents, but a slight decline in energy use. With the help of GM(1, 1) model, this paper predicted the future development trend of the blue zone, and we learned that each system had a good development trend. Although the environment will declined in the near future, but it will rise slowly in the long run. However, because the energy system energy demand growth rate is far greater than that of energy efficiency improvement, energy system will decrease significantly. With the the index weight, corresponding evaluation index and the actual situation, this paper put forward the ways to realized he coordinated development of economic and environment for the blue zone, including the environment, energy, economic, society and other aspects.