Coupling Coordination Mechanism And Coordinated Development Between The Effect Of County Ecological Protection And Regional Economic

Gross Ecosystem Product(GEP)is an effective means to evaluate the resources and benefits of the ecological environment.It can better reflect the sustainable development potential of the regional ecological environment.The gross ecosystem product is used to evaluate the status of the ecosystem,lead the direction of local green development.And it is an effective path to realize the transformation from "green water and green mountains" to "golden mountains and silver mountains".This article takes the coastal city of Dalian as the research object.It first evaluates and calculates the GEP of Dalian from the three aspects of Dalian’s product value,regulation service value and cultural service value,and then analyzes the coordination mechanism between GEP and the regional economy,and calculate the coupling degree,coupling coordination degree,coupling coordination development degree of GEP and regional economy.In addition,a gray forecast model is constructed based on the obtained data to predict the development of Dalian’s ecological-economic interaction in the short term.According to the calculation result,this article put forward countermeasures and suggestions on promoting the effectiveness of county ecological protection and coordinated development of regional economy.The main research findings are as follows:(1)From 2005 to 2015,the GDP of Dalian’s ecosystem showed a clear upward trend,from 38.261 billion yuan in 2005 to 47.562 billion yuan in 2010.By 2015,the total value of Dalian’s ecosystem production was 52.456 billion yuan,an actual increase.It was 14.195 billion yuan,an actual increase of 37.1%.Considering the spatial layout,the GEP per unit area in the east-west direction has not changed much.From 2010 to 2015,the increase in the west was significantly greater than that in the east.From the north-south direction,the GEP per unit area showed a downward trend from north to south in 2005,and the GEP per unit area in 2015 The distribution is U-shaped from north to south,and the unit area of GEP in the southern region is much higher than that in the northern region.(2)From the calculated coupling coordination degree,the overall coupling coordination degree between the GDP and economic development of Dalian City has been on the rise from2005 to 2015.The average coupling coordination degree has increased from 0.3525 in 2005 to0.6639 in 2015.The characteristics of a gradual rise from moderate imbalance to moderate coordination indicate that the two systems of ecology and economy are gradually forming a benign interactive relationship.Combining the relative development degree,from 2005 to2015,Dalian’s economy and GEP’s main coupling coordinated development type changed from moderate imbalance-economic lag to moderate coordination-ecological lag,indicating that the coupling and coordination type of ecosystem and human society is improving However,the ecological system has become more and more restrictive to economic development.(3)By constructing a grey forecast model,the forecast values of GEP and economic indicators of Dalian in 2020 and 2025 are obtained.From 2020 to 2025,Dalian’s overall GEP is still on an upward trend.Compared with 2005,the GEP value of Dalian in 2025 will actually increase by 42.195 billion yuan,an increase of 110.29%.In terms of GEP changes in various districts and counties,only Changhai County’s GEP has declined.In 2025,GEP will decrease by RMB 3,055.3 billion compared with the actual GEP in 2005,representing a decrease of 40.14%.Using the predicted data to quantitatively judge the synergy between the effectiveness of ecological protection in Dalian and the regional economy,it is found that the ecological pressure is gradually decreasing from central to north-south,and the economic pressure is increasing from central to north-south.