A Research Of PM₁₀’ Temporal-Spatial Distraction And Analysis Of Human Exposure Level To It In Beijing

As a typical air pollution, PM10 (Particular Matters aerodynamic diameters<10μm), has a serious effect on residents in China’s most cities, such as health, visibility and activities. Especially populous cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Xi’an have a heavy particulate pollution. Particular matters pollution goes through a complex process, from traffic and industrial emission, remote transmission from other regions pollutant and combustion emission under the weather and terrain conditions. Based on the meteorological factors (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, vapour press, pressure), roads effect and land use patterns, a multiple regression model is established with different seasons and buffers. In order to assess the PM10 seasonal pollution level, analysis the PM10 concentration spatially and temporally, four concentration distribution maps of PM10 are given by MLR models. The regression equation also explains the variables’ contribution for the PM10 concentration. Result shows that the road factor that it is the most pollution source. As a whole, concentration of PM10 presents an increasing tendency from spring to winter and apparently higher in winter. The south area of Beijing suffers from a more serious pollution. To evaluate the models’ reliability, cross validation method is used to calculate the R-square value, the adjusted R-square values are better, respectively are 0.75,0.67,0.59,0.71. The relatively high R-square value indicates a better fit of the model and has an accurate precision for estimating unknown areas. There are accepted value since the absolute errors between measure values and predict values are very small and acceptable, respectively are 0.006 mg/m3,0.007 mg/m3,0.01 mg/m3, 0.009 mg/m3 for four seasons. Considered the heavy pollution of PM, it is essential to analyze people who are exposed to PM10 qualitatively by some concentration cures on the plot. The heavy pollution areas are located on densely populated places in the urban and south of Beijing where people are suffering from serious health risk in this area.