The Method Of Flash Flood Disasters And Application Study

Mountain flood system is a very complex system controlled by a plurality of factors, Its emergence, evolution all have typical system characteristics, Such as jumping property, irreversibility, blur characteristic, orderly and not long-term predictability, gray characteristics and so on. These features are the traditional Newtonian mechanics can not describe. Catastrophe theory is a relatively mature and perfect singularity theory, This mathematical theory study of the external control parameter is changed, The state of system will change. therefore become an important tool for studying leaping catastrophic system. In the study of natural disaster risk management, people recognized It is recognized that the importance of the catastrophe theory for the study of natural disaster characteristics. It has been initially used in some kind of disaster System.However, In the flood risk management process, the application of of this theory results is relatively small, This paper through extensive literature search and data collected, discussion on Catastrophe Theory and floods characteristic mutation characteristics have an important meeting point, Carding the stage of the main features in natural disaster research application results, According to their characteristics select typical cases, The use of Mutation theory evaluation method in torrents disaster risk assessment.In recent years, The application of Catastrophe theory in disaster risk evaluation starting to get attention.But, The related research about Pre-disaster risk assessment and mountain loss disaste is still relatively rare.This paper by analyzing the characteristics of flood disasters built a flash flood risk assessment system. By using this system, catastrophe models in different levels have been developed to calculate the risk catastrophe level for sub-indices and obtain assessment results, which has achieved flash flood risk assessment. Taking applications, the flash floods with different frequency have been analyzed, which verified the rationality and feasibility of the disaster assessment system. It demonstrated that the newly developed system could be used as a useful tool for flash flood risk assessment.The paper main contents and conclusions.First, Summary of the flash floods disasters basic concepts and the characteristics and the status of flash floods disaster assessment at home and abroad,Summarizes the principles of catastrophe theory, development, characteristics and research on the subject, Introduce the primary mutations basic model, Describes the catastrophe theory evaluation method,Explore applications of catastrophe theory in flood disaster management to main directions and possible development trends, In particular analysis of the main evaluation of progress in the floods catastrophe theory and related fields has been achieved.Secondly, through extensive data collected and analyzed data, By using catastrophe theory, Taking Cen Shui catchment, Hunan Province, as the research site, Hill pre-disaster risk assessment; Taking 7·21 Beijing torrential rain as a typical case,Hill mountain torrents disaster losses were evaluated. Realized before the flood risk assessment and mountain torrents disaster loss evaluation.Finally, It basically the same by comparing the run results of the mutation model with research, And consistent with the actual situation, which verified the rationality and feasibility of the disaster assessment system. And the evaluation results can reflect the flash flood disaster characteristics area distribution. proposed a new and reliable method for Flash Flood disaster evaluation, It will greatly enhance the evaluation of the level of flash floods disaster, And provide the basis for mitigation department.