Spatial Panel Econometric Analysis On CO₂ Emissions In Provinces Of China

Nowadays China has become acountry which emits the most CO2 in the world. Therefore, China has unveiledthe target for Carbon Dioxide cuts. The deadline is the year of 2020. To control the CO2 emissions effectively, scientific policies have to be made. On the premise of knowing the characteristic of the CO2 emissions, we can find the main factors influencing CO2 emissions of our country. Thus, the calculation of CO2 emissions of 31 provinces from 1990 to 2012 is firstly present in this paper. Accurate analysis on the current condition of CO2 emissions in the 31 provinces of our country is then present based on the calculation. After that, spatial panel model is built to do the follow-up study. Spatial cluster analysis of CO2 emissions in the provinces is carried on. To ensure the objectivity of the results, three spatial weight matrixesare set for the spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial panel model analysis. The paper last gives some policy proposals based on the results.The results show:(1) there is a great difference in the emission load among different provinces. The emission load of the top ten provinces accounts for 59.35% of thirty one provinces. Among them,the emission load of Shandong province, Hebei province, Inner Mongolia municipality, Jiangsu province and Shanxi province account for 36.33% of thirty one provinces.(2) Spatial autocorrelation in carbon dioxide emissions is significant in our country. The spatial distribution characteristic is obvious. High value appears in northeast and low value appears southeast.(3) Real GDP and energy-resource structure are the main factors influencing the CO2 emissions. The real GDP in one province not only can have an influence on CO2 emissions of this province, but also can cause changes of CO2 emissions in neighboring provinces through space transmission mechanism.