The Temporal And Spatial Evolution Analysis Of The Indirect Carbon Emissions Demand Level Of Urban Residents In 30 Provinces Of China

Indirect carbon emissions from household consumption are an important component of household carbon emissions.But how to realize of the indirect carbon emissions reduction of households consumption is a huge challenge currently facing our country when the consumption level and the quality of life are improving.According to the different consumption purposes of the residents,the indirect carbon emissions of households show the hierarchical characteristic.It is an important research in the study of indirect carbon emissions to correctly understand the change of the characteristic of the demand level for per capita indirect carbon emissions.It provides a new idea for carbon emission reduction and also has important reference value for the construction of ecological civilization.This paper starts from the problem of "how to reduce the per capita indirect carbon emissions in different demand levels".Firstly,based on the demand level of urban residents’ consumption,the corresponding relationship between different demand levels and indirect carbon emissions is established.And the level of demand is divided into three types: survival type,development type and luxury type.The corresponding per capita indirect carbon emissions are survival type,development type,luxury type.Secondly,based on the per capita consumption data of urban residents in 2002~2012,the energy consumption data and the input output tables released in 2002、2007、2012,we use the input output method to estimate the per capita indirect carbon emissions per of 30 provinces in China.And the spatial distribution and changing trend characteristics of the per capita indirect carbon emissions in different demand levels are explained through the analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution and trend of the per capita indirect carbon emissions in different demand levels.The changes in the lifestyle of residents are traced through the analysis of the combined structure characteristics of the per capita indirect carbon emissions at different levels of demand.Through the analysis of the global Moran index of the per capita indirect carbon emissions in different demand levels,this paper measures the spatial correlation characteristics of the per capita indirect carbon emissions in different demand levels.The driving mechanisms of per capita indirect carbon emissions in different demand levels are exploring through constructing spatial panel model on different demand levels.And the corresponding emission reduction measures are putting forward for different demand levels per capita indirect carbon emissions.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)There is an increasing trend of per capita indirect carbon emissions at different demand levels in 30 provinces of China,and the northern region always is the main space carrier.From the perspective of average number、the range and growth rate of per capita indirect carbon emissions at different levels of demand,all of them have an upward trend,but the average annual growth rate of per capita indirect carbon emissions of survival type is lower than that of development type and luxury type.Although high-value areas of them are concentrated in northern China,and this feature is becoming more pronounced,the spatial difference of the subsistence and development type showed a decreasing trend and the luxury type showed the characteristics of decreasing first and then increasing.From the general trend of spatial distribution,the indirect carbon emissions of different demand levels always have the characteristics of "high north and low south".(2)The combination structure of per capita indirect carbon emissions is constantly changing and has the characteristics of survival type > development type > luxury type.Although the proportion of development type and luxury type has increased,but the sum of the proportion of them is less than that of survival type.It shows that although the Chinese urban residents are still dominated by the survival type,there has been a great change compared with the previous period.Among them,the number of the provinces with luxury indirect carbon emissions as the traction is rising,indicating that luxury type has become the main driving force to promote the growth of indirect carbon emissions in most provinces,and should become an important area of concern for future emission reduction.(3)The global Moran’s I measurement shows that there is a significant spatial autocorrelation of the urban residents’ per capita indirect carbon emissions in different demand levels in 30 provinces of China,and there is a strong "Matthew effect".Among them,the spatial accumulation degree of the survival indirect carbon emissions is basically stable,the spatial correlation of the development type per capita indirect carbon emissions changes dramatically,and the spatial correlation of luxury indirect carbon emissions has the characteristics of first decreasing and then rising.(4)There are differences in the size and direction of the driving mechanism of per capita indirect carbon emissions at different levels of demand.The Spatial Doberman model is used to regress the per capita indirect carbon emissions of different demand levels.The results show that there are significant differences between the direct and indirect effects of the factors of the per capita indirect carbon emissions at different demand levels.The technological progress is the key factor to restrain the per capita indirect carbon emissions at different demand levels,which will not only cause the reduction of the per capita indirect carbon emissions in different demand levels of the province,but also lead to the decline of the per capita indirect carbon emissions of the development and luxury types of neighboring provinces.The influence of consumption factors at different demand levels is complex.The increase of income will lead to the increase of per capita indirect carbon emissions at different levels of local demand,and the development type have significant spillover effect.Average consumption tendency and Engel coefficient are mainly direct effects.The influence of urbanization factors on the per capita indirect carbon emissions at different demand levels is quite different.The transformation and upgrading of industrial structure can restrain the per capita indirect carbon emissions in different demand levels.Education level has a negative direct and indirect effect on the per capita indirect carbon emissions of survival type,and has a positive indirect effect on the developmental type.The effect of industrialization and urbanization rate is limited.To some extent,the increase of foreign direct investment alleviates the pressure of local development type and luxury type per capita indirect carbon emission,but it will promote the increase of neighborhood development type and luxury type per capita indirect carbon emission.