Economic Performance And Interaction Between Emission Trading And Tradable Green Certificate

To solve the problems of renewable energy development, power consumption and persisting green science development, China will promulgate Tradable Green Certificate (TGC) while Emission Trading (ET) is under operation during the 13th Five-year Plan to put forward the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS). ET and TGC will not only help solve the problems of energy shortage and environment pollution, but also promote renewable development and power system reform.Under this background, this thesis reviews the literatures and research results at home and abroad and focuses on the mechanism and effect of Emission Trading and Tradable Green Certificate acting on power supply structure of China. Firstly, Standard acting on power supply structure of China. Firstly, the necessity, feasibility and mechanism design of ET and TGC are introduced from the perspective of policy change theory and institutional change theory. Secondly, three equilibrium models of ET, TGC and the electricity market are established to analyze the mechanism of TGC and RPS acting on power supply structure as well as the interlinkage of the three markets. Based on this, the interactive system dynamics model of RT market, TGC market and electricity market is built using the software of Vensim to simulate the economic performance of ET and TGC policy.The conclusions are as follows. In the price of certificates, different levels of TGC has no appreciable impact while different growth rates of carbon emission can change adapt cycle of price of certificates. In the aspect of electrovalency, the general trend is upward. Growth rate of carbon emission mainly affect adapt cycle and the level of TGC has influence on fluctuation range of electrovalency. As far as power industry is concerned, the general trend of installed renewable capacity is always upward and thermal power installed capacity rises only under lower level of TGC target. Power supply and demand will rise slowly during 2012 and 2020 and it grows faster under the low level of TGC target compared with other scenes.