A Research On The Impact Mechanism And Policy Effects Of The Green Certificate And Carbon Emissions Trading On China’s Electricity Market

In order to reduce carbon emissions and achieve the strategic requirements of low-carbon and sustainable development in the electricity industry,the emission reduction measures mainly include guiding coal electricity units to save energy and reduce emissions and increasing the proportion of renewable energy units.China’s installed capacity of renewable energy has ranked first in the world inspired by the implementation of a fixed electricity price system,but the rapid growth of installed capacity has resulted in excessive subsidy pressure and insufficient consumption of renewable energy.Therefore,market-based emission reduction policies represented by green certificate trading and carbon emissions trading have gradually shown their advantages,the implementation of the policy will greatly affect the electricity market,and it is a new challenge for the power generation industry to coordinate its effective integration with the electricity market.In the above background,this thesis studies the impact mechanism and policy effects of the green certificate and carbon emissions trading on China’s electricity market:(1)expounding the economic theories of green certificates and carbon emission permit,such as the use of property rights and transaction cost,and analyzing the realistic foundation of green certificate trading and carbon emissions trading,that is,the market components and operating mechanisms;(2)based on the general equilibrium theory,a non-cooperative game of monopolistic electricity manufacturers coexisting green certificate trading and carbon emissions trading is established,and the internal connection among the three markets is revealed through the equilibrium relationship.On this basis,the boundary of the system is defined,and the causal loop diagram and the stock flow chart of the three market interactions are constructed;(3)setting equations and assigning initial values to the parameters in the system dynamics model of the policy effect,and running the relevant programs in the Vinsim software to obtain the changing trends of the three markets’ relevant parameters in the next ten years.It also objectively analyzes whether the green certificates and carbon emission permit among power generators can achieve the purpose of adjusting the electricity supply structure,reducing carbon emissions and improving social welfare.The research indicates that:(1)under the framework of the renewable energy quota system,the government stipulates that a certain proportion of green electricity must be contained in the electricity produced by electricity generation companies.Therefore,a green certificate transaction is required between the coal electricity manufacturer as the demander and the renewable energy manufacturer as the supplier so as to complete the prescribed quota tasks;(2)under the framework of the carbon emissions trading system,the government stipulates that the carbon emissions generated by the production activities of electricity generation companies shall not exceed the limited total emissions.For carbon emissions beyond the free emission quota,the coal electricity manufacturers as suppliers and the coal-fired electricity producers as demanders need to conduct carbon emissions trading;(3)renewable energy manufacturers and non-renewable energy manufacturers connect the green certificate trading market,the carbon emission trading market and the electricity market in series,and they influence each other through the prices of green certificate,carbon emission,electricity,and numerous endogenous and exogenous variables.The prices of green certificates and carbon emission permit are all related to emission reduction rate,emission reduction cost,long-term marginal cost,quota ratio and carbon emission;(4)green certificates and carbon emission are used in the electricity market through market transaction transmission mechanism,which can optimize the electricity supply structure while increasing the power generation of renewable energy.The implementation of the policy can not only achieve the goal of renewable energy development,but also achieve the target of reducing carbon emissions and improving social welfare.Finally,according to the research conclusions,this thesis puts forward relevant measures to implement the transaction system from the perspective of law,policy and system design.