Time And Space Distribution Of Hand, Foot And Mouth Disease And The Risk Factors In Hunan Province

In this study, cases data of Hunan province and environment factors of Loudi and Yongzhou were collected. The study combined the HFMD incidence with the geographic information system to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of HFMD and identify the environment risk factors of HFMD transmission.(1) The spatio-temporal distribution of HFMD had some characteristics. On time scale, HFMD incidence varied seasonally. We found that the HFMD incidence between 2010 and 2014 had at least one main peak every year from April to July. But in 2011 and 2013 there was another peak from October to December. The incidence had greatly improved in 2012 and 2014. In space, the higher incidence areas were in the middle and east.(2) According to the spatial autocorrelation analysis, the result showed the hot spots in Hunan province. According to spatial-temporal scan statistic analysis, we found the time clusters among 2010 and 2014 was from April to June in 2014 and 2014 was the year with the largest HFMD cases number among five years. This paper obtained the four level risk areas of HFMD.(3) The study used the generalized additive model to analyze the risk factors of the hand, foot and mouth disease incidence and also obtained the optimal model to fit the HFMD incidence. The most significant factor was the previous week’s incidence and the most significant meteorological factors were temperature and pressure. Meteorological factors working on HFMD had a lag and the lag was one week in Loudi and Yongzhou.In this study, we effectively explored the spatio-temporal distribution of HFMD cases and the environment risk factors of HFMD transmission, which could provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of HFMD. The method with GIS successfully strengthened the prediction both in the intensity of epidemic and transmission risk areas, providing reference for the investigation of other similar infectious diseases.