Study On Probabilistic Method For Some Problems Of Epidemiology

Epidemiology gradually forms a subject with human being struggling with the different disease which is harmful to human’s health. Its aim is to make policy and measures and control the influenza by studying the distribution of the disease and the main factors that affect the spread of disease. Also we need to summarize the etiology and pathogenesis regularity by studying. In the early time, epidemiology mainly makes investigation and takes relevant strategies for some infectious diseases. With the further research, epidemiology has expanded from infectious diseases to chronic,non-communicable diseases. This paper is mainly to study on the influenza. First we do some study on the antiviral drugs under the premise of that vaccine is not available.Then we also do some research on using the antiviral drugs to prevent and control influenza under the premise that antiviral drugs are effective. Detailed content is as follows:Firstly, using the model about the amount of virus and the chain binomial model which were first used by Glass and Becker we obtain the distribution of the number of infected family numbers. By simulation, we can get the size of the outbreak in household. What’s more, to find out whether antiviral drugs are effective against the newly emerged virus strain, we design the testing and compare the results of using Wilcoxon rank sum test with the results of using Alexander-Goven test. Result shows that Wilcoxon rank sum test is better than Alexander-Goven test. Last, by sensitivity analysis, we can get that in order to reduce the sample size, we should use antiviral drugs not only for treatment but also for prophylaxis and distribute it to infected persons as soon as possible.Secondly, we assume that the antiviral drugs are effective against the newly emerged virus strain and use it for disease control and prevention. We develop the SLIAR model that Aribo has proposed and subdivide the infected persons into two parts:the infected persons who have received the antiviral drugs and the infected persons who have not. After that we calculate the control reproduction number and the approximate expression of the number of latent persons. By the approximate expression, we also obtain the approximate result of the cost. Comparing the result with the actual value confirms that the approximation is valid. Finally, we analyse the influence of someparameters on disease control and prevention by sensitivity analysis and conclude that it’s necessary to take measures for asymptomatic patients.At last, according to the paper, we provide some further ideas.