Research On The Evaluation Of Risk Factors And Model About Geological Disasters In Xinjiang

Geological disaster is a devastating disaster event. Almost every country all over the world would be affected by the different degree of harm. Our country is one of countries with serious geological disasters which seriously restrict sustainable development of social economy. Xinjiang is located in the northwest of our country, the gap of elevation difference, broken terrain, complex geological structure of rock mass and the uneven distribution of rainfall conditions caused the landslide, debris flow and collapse occurred frequently, which have brought severe challenges to the work of disaster prevention and reduction of local government. Therefore, scientific and effective control the distribution of geological disasters in Xinjiang and establishment of geological disaster risk assessment model have important theoretical and practical significance.Quantitative analysis of some features of Xinjiang geological disasters has been carried out and evaluation index factors have been selected in the paper according to the actual situation with the support of GIS technology and the full investigation and review of the literature.. Finally, it evaluated the risk of geological disaster. The main results are as followed:(1) Quantitative analysis and reveal the features of geological disasters? Direction distribution analysis has been applied to the geological hazards about landslide, debris flow and collapse by using the standard deviation ellipse based on ArcGIS and it found that its spatial distribution has both the aggregation and dispersion. Meanwhile quantitative validation has been carried out through Ripley K function.?The proportion of geological disaster on different scale has been counted up in the paper. At the same time, it has quantified the special distribution characteristics of the geological hazards on a scale based on the principle of nuclear density.(2) The representative indexes have been selected as the danger of about landslide, debris flow and collapse disasters evaluation factors considering two factors which include inoculate and cause disasters based on Xinjiang actual situation. And sensitivity of index factor was evaluated through the statistical analysis method and it revealed the relationship between geological disaster event and each index.(3) Some most commonly used methods of geological hazard assessment have been described systematically in the paper. By comparison, it found that the Logistical method is suitable for large area. Finally, with an example of landslide in Xinjiang, the sensitivity was evaluated and verified. According to the assessment results, Xinjiang was divided into four regions:not prone areas, low prone areas, prone areas and high prone areas.(4) For getting the simulation distribution of Xinjiang rainfall, interpolation method has been applied in the paper according to the data of Xinjiang meteorological station. Then Risk evaluation of landslide hazard has performed by overlying rainfall factor data based on landslide hazard. And landslide hazard spatial distribution has divided into four regions: low risk, moderate risk, high risk and highest risk area.