The Application Study Of The XAJ Model At Hilly Areas

With the continuous development of modern society,the impact of human activities on the natural ecological environment has become increasingly serious,especially on flood disasters of hilly areas.Human activities affect the stability of the surface of the earth environment,besides it has a great influence on the surface of land use condition,it also makes the dispersed water centralized,decentralized water transfer,thereby affect the frequency of water disaster.Flash floods happened hilly areas special floods,has called the "dumpling",mountain flood disasters in its short history,the rain strong features,once happened,in a short period of time will give the people caused heavy loss of life and property.Our country has invested a lot of money on a series of mountain torrent disaster research topic currently,how to consider the influence of human activities to the evaluation of study basin flood damage,for more accurate flood forecasting,better people's life and property security,realize the sustainable development of social economy,is the point of the present study.This study for the ancient county in the standing above hilly areas watershed of specific characteristics,comprehensive consider the double factors of human activities and natural geography,the flood forecasting,hilly areas flood disaster research provides more accurate results.This paper studies the main content is as follows:1?Comprehensive collect related literature at home and abroad,systematic and in-depth comparison,concluded that flood forecast methods at home and abroad,and often use optimization evaluation method,collecting the ancient county hydrological geological data in Xinan river,selected model as the research main method;2?Combined with Mapinfo and Arc Gis software,and to extract the stood above the watershed as the research watershed,collect the impact of human activities on the ecological,main reservoir is land use condition and data of pond and dam;3?Through the land use data processing software,within the basin in the late 80 s so far research on land use change were analyzed,and the study of human activities on the condition of the watershed land use trends change,at the same time survey collected artificial dammed-up water hydraulic structures in the basin such as reservoirs,pond and dam,will consider nearly the dammed-up water volume of the water conservancy facilities in XAJ model,established the XAJ model considering the influences of human activities;4?Inspired by HEC_HMS software,using Mapinfo software in combination with Arc Gis software to the cell of XAJ river model on the basis of fully considering the topography influence the rainfall precipitation station hydrometeorological data,the allocation of science on the new classification of small watershed unit,to consider human persuaded of the XAJ flood simulation model to make scientific improvements;5?Using the Matlab software to calculate and analysis,as well as get the optimal range of parameters of the XAJ model considering human activity.Get the optimal range of parameters,and flood forecast.Contrast the calculation results of the XAJ model considering human activity in front and behind,it can be seen that The prediction accuracy of the XAJ model considering the effects of human activity is 1improved,Which is higher than the XAJ model does not considering the effects of human activity;6?By using the SCE-UA method,we can get the optimal parameters of the XAJ model.Using the optimal parameters of the XAJ model for flood forecasting,and compare the flood forecasting results with the results of not optimized.