Research On Landslide Stability Analysis And Forecasting Technology

Landslide geohazards are widely distributed in mountainous areas,which cause large numbers of casualties and huge economic losses every year,Therefore,it is particularly important to treat the landslide geohazards effectively.Based on geological survey and combined with on-site engineering geological survey data,a monitoring system is established in this paper,which regards the treatment project of the HXJ Expressway Qili connecting line as the background.Research on landslide stability analysis and forecasting technology based on monitoring data.The main research work is as follows:(1)The landslide development characteristics are Studied.Based on this,a landslide monitoring system is built,which include automatic monitoring system and manual monitoring system.The law of change of monitoring factors and the effects of rainfall on other monitoring factors are analyzed.Finally,three indexes.Smoothing method,nonlinear regression method and GM(1,1)model are used to predict the deep displacement of landslide.(2)Based on the engineering geological data and deep displacement monitoring data,the deformation and failure mechanism of the landslide of the Qili link landline and the potential sliding zone position are studied.The stability safety factor of the landslide is calculated using GeoStudio software,and the high and low water levels are studied using ABAQUS software for numerical simulation analysis.The change of the plastic zone and displacement field of the conditional landslide,combined with the surface displacement,the relationship between the landslide stability and its stability is analysed;(3)Based on the monitoring data analysis,the study of landslide stability combined with the limit equilibrium method and numerical simulation is a more effective method.Through this method,the bottom of the plastic zone is mainly distributed near the unconformity contact zone.Deformation displacement is concentrated in the middle and back part of the slope body.When the rainfall is greater than 50 mm,the displacement and crack extension are greatly changed.In the predictive analysis,non-negative accumulation of data sequences is a better data processing method.The prediction accuracy of the model is negatively correlated with the degree of displacement rate oscillation.