Simulation Analysis Of Energy Consumption Carbon Emission System Of Beijing City Based On System Dynamics

With economic development, environmental pollution has become an important issue humanity must face, seeking clean and efficient developing manner has become a human consensus. In Beijing "Thirteen Five" period energy saving and tackling climate change planning clears that to build a resource-saving and environment-friendly society, and in the "Thirteen Five" period to develop carbon intensity, energy intensity double down indicators. Beijing city should seize the "Beijing-Tianjin-wing integration" development opportunities, and strive to ease the non-capital function to promote structural conservation reducing energy consumption, continue to cultivate the development of low-carbon energy industry, the early achieve the development objectives of low-carbon economy. Therefore, how to develop low carbon emission, low energy consumption as the main feature of a low-carbon economy has become the most important issue to be addressed in Beijing.In this paper,with the help of the system dynamics approach to regard Beijing energy consumption and carbon emission system as the research object, firstly analyzes the current situation in Beijing low-carbon economy and the impact of factors in recent years, defines the boundaries of the system and variables, sorts of system feedback mechanism and mutual restraint effect between the role of factors, on the basis of the above, the energy consumption and carbon emission model of Beijing city is built, and the effectiveness of the model is verified by the analysis of carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, carbon intensity and energy intensity. In the initial state which is maintained in 2020 low carbon policy parameters unchanged for the 2015 level, make the initial simulation analysis of the system, found that the initial state can not complete the government plan to develop low-carbon policy objectives, then it is proved that the model of energy consumption and carbon emission in Beijing city should be simulated and analyzed in many scenarios. Firstly, the industrial investment structure, the science and technology investment ratio, the per capita living energy consumption, the energy consumption structure as the object to do the single scene simulation analysis, found that single scenario simulation cannot accomplish low-carbon policy goals and has certain limitations. Finally, based on the analysis of single scene simulation, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the situation, conclusion that in scenario four cases is the most suitable pattern for the current situation of the development of low carbon economy in Beijing City, and achieve the goal of low carbon policy "13th Five-Year" period.