Systematic Research And Simulation Of Anhui Province’s Energy、Economy And Carbon Emissions Based On SD Model

As the material basis for the development of the national economy,energy plays an important role.The rapid development of Anhui’s economy at this stage still relies to a large extent on the input of energy factors.In recent years,as the economy continues to develop,energy consumption has also increased.The consumption of non-clean energy will inevitably lead to excessive carbon dioxide emissions and cause environmental pollution,especially for Anhui Province,a province with an energy structure dominated by coal,which will cause a large amount of carbon dioxide emissions during the development process.In this way,the imbalance between economic development and energy production and consumption,and the contradiction between environmental pollution and environmental pollution will intensify with development.Therefore,how to promote the sustainability of the development of economy,energy and environment,It has important practical significance at this stage.This article regards energy,economy,and carbon emissions as a system,first combing the previous studies on the three,and then analyzing the current economic development status,energy utilization status and carbon emissions status of Anhui Province,and detailed analysis of their respective influencing factors.Lay the foundation for the next model construction.Next,a system dynamics model consisting of three systems of "energy-economy-carbon emissions" is constructed,and the validity of the model is tested through historical data.After confirming that the model is valid,take the important goals proposed in the 13 th Five-Year Plan of Anhui Province as the final goal of the model study,and analyze whether the development plan of the 13 th Five-Year Plan of the Anhui Provincial Government can meet the economic goals,energy goals,and When the carbon emission target is not met,simulate the data in the next few years by adjusting the value of some controllable variables in the system,and analyze whether the simulation results can meet the important variables in each subsystem.In the "13th Five-Year Plan" of Anhui Province Finally,an optimal development path is selected to provide scientific and reasonable policy recommendations for the sustainable and healthy development of Anhui Province in the future.The research results show that the total energy consumption and coal consumption targets of the energy subsystem cannot be met in accordance with the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" of Anhui Province,and when the future development status is simulated according to the development path in 2019,it still cannot meet the requirements of the energy subsystem.For these two goals,three adjustment plans were adopted,namely,adjusting the investment structure of the three industries,the structure of energy consumption,and the proportion of investment in science and technology.The results found that when adjusting the investment structure of the three industries,or only the energy consumption structure,or the industrial investment structure and energy consumption structure at the same time,although the total energy consumption and coal consumption can be reduced,the reduction is not large,and the target is still not achieved.By increasing the investment in science and technology per unit of GDP,it can significantly reduce the total energy consumption and coal consumption,and reduce the overall total carbon emissions of the province.Therefore,it is recommended that the control of future energy and carbon emissions in Anhui Province be achieved mainly through scientific and technological means.Of course,adjustments to the investment structure and energy consumption structure of the three industries can also reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions.However,in view of the conditions in Anhui Province in recent years,significant adjustments to the investment structure and energy consumption structure of the three industries have been significant.Difficulties.Therefore,the adjustment plan for the investment structure of the three industries and the energy consumption structure can be used as an auxiliary plan.The focus is to increase the investment in science and technology,improve the efficiency of energy use,and achieve the purpose of energy saving and emission reduction.