Study On Simulation And Optimization Of Compound Eco-Economic System In Yellow River Delta Efficient Eco-economic Zone

Efficient use of resources and ecological environment improvement are the fundamental principle of Yellow River Delta Efficient Ecological Economic Zone and the development of Yellow River Delta Efficient Eco-economic Zone should focus on optimizing the industrial structure,improving the infrastructure,promoting the equalization of basic public services,innovating the institutional mechanisms to turn the way of development.In this context,this paper takes the Yellow River Delta Efficient Ecological Economic Zone as an example to study the development mode of the economic zone in order to provide the direction for the development of the Yellow River Delta Efficient Eco-economic Zone.This paper is divided into six parts: Part 1 is introduction which mainly introduces the research background and significance,reviews the relevant literature of the compound ecosystem in three aspects,and makes a brief introduction to the research content and the technical route of this paper.The second part is the theoretical overview of the basic theory of the coordinated development of the eco-economic system which includes the content and methods of complex system theory,sustainable development theory,compound ecosystem theory and system dynamics theory.The third part first determines the research area of this paper which taking Dong ying and Bin zhou as the boundary,and then mainly introduces the economic,social,ecological and resource development of the Yellow River Delta Efficient Eco-economic Zone to provide an analytical basis for the subsequent modeling of the fourth part.Part 4 and part 5 are the focus of this paper.The main work of the fourth part is to divide the Yellow River Delta Efficient Eco-economic Zone into four subsystems of economic,social,environmental and resource and then uses the system dynamics method to construct the corresponding subsystem model and the general model of the complex eco-economic system dynamics of the Yellow River Delta.Part 5 is simulation and prediction.On the basis of the validity test based on the historical data of the Yellow River Delta from 2005 to 2014,this paper sets out four scenarios: scenario Ⅰ(Patten of extensive economic development),scenario Ⅱ(Patten of heavy industry structure adjustment,reducing water supply gap and cultivated land pressure),scenario Ⅲ(Patten of Heavy industry structure adjustment,reducing water supply gap and cultivated land pressure,lighting water environmental protection),scenario Ⅳ(Patten of coordinated development)to forecast the development status of economy,environment,resources of Yellow River Delta Efficient Eco-economic Zone from 2018 to 2030.Based on the comparative analysis of the simulation results,this paper finds that scenario Ⅳ(Patten of coordinated development)is the best scenario of development direction for Yellow River Delta Efficient Eco-economic Zone and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the development of the Yellow River Delta.The last part is the conclusion and the prospect.This part first summarizes the important conclusions of this paper and then puts forward four aspects that should be paid attention to in the modeling process and follow-up work,which provides the direction and the starting point for perfecting this research in the future.