Research On Investment Decision Of PPP Project Of Sewage Treatment Based On Black-Scholes Model

Water construction is an important foundation for the building,and it could promote the country's economic development,The rapid development of our country's economy caused the water pollution control urgent situation.Scientific and rational investment decision-making is to alleviate the current sewage treatment industry is an effective measure of the grim situation,In order to overcome the shortage of government funds and the concentration of risk in the traditional investment decision of sewage treatment project,"PPP model" as a public infrastructure diversification of governance of a new model came into being.In view of the investment decision of PPP project,In this paper,the Black-Scholes option pricing model is applied to the traditional NPV investment decision-making model of wastewater treatment project,And the optimal concession period decision-making model is constructed,The model makes up for the shortcomings of fuzzy calculation in the traditional NPV investment decision model of wastewater treatment project,In this paper,the HP filtering method was be innovative used,Through running EVIEWS software for continuous years of sewage treatment capacity for filtering analysis,We obtain the volatility ? of the important parameters in the Black-Scholes option pricing model,Finally,by introducing the parameters into the optimization model,It is concluded that the concession period when the investment return is expected to reach the expectation of the investors within the agreed period,And the concession period is the optimal concession period in PPP investment decision,To assist the government and social investors to make a more scientific investment in sewage treatment projects PPP decision-making.At last,this paper takes the PPP project under construction in Zhuji City as an example,By running the optimized decision model constructed in this paper,With the results of the operation to Zhuji City,the PPP project concession period for analysis and evaluation of sewage treatment,And use it for government and social investors in other PPP projects for concession agreement investment decision-making reference.