Analysis Of Investment Decision Of D Gas Station Project Based On Real Option

D gas station investment project is one of the largest gas station investment projects of YS company.This paper will analyze the decision before investment of this project.The investment project of D gas station is planned to be constructed in 2018.If the operation is smooth in the next year,the second phase of investment will be carried out in early 2020.Otherwise,it will wait for the investment opportunity,delay the investment or not continue to make additional investment.Based on the analysis of the project and the theory of real options,the investment project of D gas station contains real options,which is different from the general investment project.Therefore,how to scientifically and completely evaluate the value of this project,so as to provide decision support for YS,is exactly the problem to be solved in this paper.Compared with the traditional discounted cash flow method,the real option method has the advantage of considering the uncertain value(option value).Considering the characteristics of the investment project of D gas station,this study believes that the real option method is more reasonable to evaluate the value of this project.This paper firstly analyzes the applicability of the real option method for the investment project of the D gas station: by studying the uncertainty of the project of the D gas station and the implied option characteristics of the investment project of the D gas station,it analyzes the real options that may be included in the investment project of the D gas station,so as to explain the rationality of adopting the real option method in this study.Then,the black-scholes model(b-s model)was selected to calculate the option value C of the project.Finally,the investment decision model was used to estimate the real value NPVe of the D gas station project,so as to judge that this project could create value for YS and make the investment decision of the D gas station project.As there are many uncertain factors affecting the investment project of the D gas station,this study USES the real option theory,investment theory and discounted cash flow method to estimate the value of the project of the D gas station,hoping to provide reference for YS company's investment decision of the investment project of the D gas station.