Study On Ecosystem Risk Assessment And Early Warning System Of Compound Power Plant

The long-term burning of coal-fired power plants releases various heavy metal-containing products in the process of power generation inevitably,thus posing ecological risk threat to the soil ecosystems in the areas where the power plants are located.Ecological risk affects the health and sustainable development of human society,therefore,putting forward and constructing an method suitable for the ERA research and designing a early warning system is extremely significant.In this paper,based on the theories of complex system and eco-economic system,the concept of Composite Power Plant Ecosystem is put forward.We introduces the main components of the system,and establishes the classification of the specific subsystems of the complex power plant ecosystem: Combustion System-Soil Ecosystem-Socioeconomic System.The three subsystems are the producers,consumers and decomposers of the complex ecosystem risk respectively.Second,the I-NEA information network ERA model coupled with SS-TFN & fuzzy probability are proposed because of the uncertainty of risk producing and the limitation of monitoring data,especially the hidden and complex of ecosystem risk.Through the SS-TFN & fuzzy probability method,each kind of ecosystem component gets the probability of occurrence with a level of interference,and then gets the fuzzy initial risk value.Through the network control distribution relation NCA,the transfer paths of indirect risk are obtained,and the number is k*n.Compared with the general ERA model,the number of transfer paths increase by(k-1)*n.Combined with the ERA model,the method of threshold prewarning is established,and then the evaluation and early warning models are obtained.The model base integration method is used to evaluate the early warning model and design the GIS system,and the possible design sketch of the system is also given.Combined with the case study,taking into account the generation,transmission and destination of risks is necessary and both of the direct and indirect risk should be considered.The model base integration method is more similar to the seamless coupling mode,which is more favorable to evaluate the operation of the early warning system.Timely management and control measures help to ensure the stable operation of the cological system and the sustainable development of ecological system and economic system.