Construction And Application Of Carbon Estimation Model For Tourism Industry In Provincial Area Of China

2017 has been designated as the International Year for Sustainable Tourism Development by the United Nations,and the discussion on sustainable tourism measurement has become a hot topic in the recent United Nations World Tourism Organization meeting.In this context,measuring the impact of tourism gradually extended from the economic contribution to the environment,society,culture and other areas of sustainable development.The calculation of carbon emissions in the carbon compensation trilogy model which is pursued by Scotland for tourism is the first step,and also a key step.Tourism covers the six elements of food,shelter,travel,shopping and entertainment,covering a wide range of industries,the tourism has a different from the traditional industries of its particularity and complexity in the carbon emissions measurement,because it's comprehensive strong,industry-related,the concept of the border is not clear,does not belong to the national economic account system in the traditional industry and so on.All of this will limit the carbon emissions especially indirect carbon emissions measurement research and the development of relevant emission reduction policies.Most of the existing research are writing from the consumption-direct production perspective,use the bottom-up method to measure the direct carbon emissions of tourism activities,while ignoring the tourism carbon emissions which are indirectly generated by the upstream tourism industry for the development of tourism activities carried out processing,distribution and other activities,resulting in the tourism industry carbon leakage.In view of this situation,based on the National Accounting System(SNA)2008 and Tourism Satellite Account(2008):the recommended method framework,this paper adopted the top-down method to measure.Based on the current statistical system,Economic and industrial classification standards and other practical conditions,first constructed regional tourism satellite account platform at the provincial level of,and use of this account platform with the regional input-output table,stripped of the tourism industry economy data from the national economic and industrial sector,and constructed the regional input-output table which including the tourism industry,established the economic interaction between the tourism industry and other industries.Then,through the development of the input-output expansion table containing the energy consumption,I established the economic interaction between the economic and energy consumption of the tourism industry.Finally,based on the input-output theory and the life-cycle theory,the key measure of the Ecological Multipliers of the tourism industry is calculated by input and output matrix and the direct carbon displacement data,so I measured the direct and indirect carbon emissions,finally formed a complete set of model system of carbon emissions from macroeconomic perspective the perspective of tourism at the provincial level.In order to test the application value of the model,this paper compared the various methods of carbon emissions measurement in the tourism industry,compared the advantages and disadvantages of various measurement methods and the applicable conditions,and chosen 30 provinces and cities in 2012(excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macau and Taiwan).This paper made an empirical analysis using the measured model which is constructed,found out the ecological multiplier of tourism in various provinces and cities in 2012.The ecological multiplier of Guangdong Province is the smallest,only 1.131 tons of ten thousand RMB,Qinghai Province reached 24.354 tons of ten thousand RMB,which has the largest ecological multiplier.In conclusion,the regional distribution of the ecological multiplier of China's tourism industry was uneven,the provinces and cities in the southern coastal areas and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River were generally lower than those of other regions,and the ecological benefits were better.The multiplier of the northwest and northeastern regions was relatively high.In order to explore the difference between the direct and indirect carbon emissions of the tourism industry and the carbon displacement of the tourism sector,the spatial statistical analysis of the carbon emissions in China's inbound tourism were carried out.As a result,I not only found that the indirect emissions of inbound tourism in provinces and cities were far greater than the characteristics of direct emissions,but also found that the largest carbon emissions sector of the tourism characteristics industrial sector was transportation sector.In order to explore the regional differences in the carbon emissions of tourism in various provinces and municipalities,used GeoDa and other spatial measurement software to 30 provinces and cities of the ecological multiplier as a variable index for the analysis of Theil index and spatial autocorrelation analysis,the results show that there are high characteristics of west and high in the west,and the ecological benefits of inbound tourism in the eastern coastal areas and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River are better.The ecological benefits of the northwest region are poor,and the industry needs to be adjusted.At the same time,there are obvious agglomeration phenomena in the spatial distribution of China's inbound tourism,and the provinces with similar ecological multipliers are characterized by concentrated distribution.The high carbon emission areas are mainly concentrated in the northwestern regions such as Gansu,Qinghai and Ningxia,Mainly concentrated in Guangdong,Fujian,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and other eastern coastal areas.Aiming at the empirical results,this paper put forward some policy suggestions on how to develop the healthy low-carbon land in inbound tourism industry of china.Finally,the paper summarized the applicability and shortcomings of the carbon emission measurement model about regional tourism of china,and put forward the research prospect.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following points:First,based on the preparation of regional tourism satellite accounts,the scope of accounting of carbon emissions in tourism industry is defined.The second is to combine the theory of input-output and life-cycle to apply the indicator of ecological multiplier to the calculation of tourism carbon emissions at the provincial level for the first time.Third,measured the inbound tourism carbon emissions(including direct and indirect)and analyzed the regional differences and spatial agglomeration,in order to make reasonable policy recommendations.In addition,due to the limitations of the existing data,also the industrial classification is not comprehensive enough,especially the tertiary industry is relatively coarse,which has affected the accuracy of the results to a certain extent and needs to be improved in future studies.