Carbon Emission Measurement And Influencing Factors Analysis Of Tourism Industry From The Perspective Of Low Carbon Tourism

With the rapid development of the global economy,the demand gap for tourism and leisure has gradually increased.Tourism has become one of the pillar industries in nationgal economy.The rapid growth of tourism economy is at the cost of expanding human activities and increasing demand for social services and energy.At the same time,it brings many environmental problems and a lot of carbon emissions.According to the research report issued by the World Tourism Organization(UNWTO),the worldwide tourism carbon emissions in 2005 were 1.3 billion tons,accounting for 5% of the total human carbon emissions;the average contribution rate of tourism to climate warming was 10%.The report predicts that carbon emissions from tourism will increase by 152% by 2035,based on the existing development model of world tourism.Therefore,the change of global climate is closely related to the development of tourism,and they are interrelated.In order to achieve the sustainable development goal of tourism,we should consider the negative effects of tourism development,choose the right direction of tourism development,and reconcile the contradiction between economic development and environmental protection.Under the background of global warming,this paper expounds the impact of tourism on climate and environment,and the significance of studying carbon emissions of tourism.After reviewing the research status of tourism carbon emissions at home and abroad,this paper takes tourism industry in Hubei Province as an example,uses quantitative and qualitative research methods to construct a model for estimating and influencing factors analysis of tourism carbon emissions in Hubei Province,calculates and analyzes the influencing factors of tourism carbon emissions in Hubei Province,and develops tourism industry in Hubei Province according to the results of estimating and analyzing tourism carbon emissions.Suggestions are put forward accordingly.Firstly,the current situation of tourism development in Hubei Province is analyzed.Through the concept of "tourism consumption stripping coefficient",the energy consumption of tourism-related industries is separated from the corresponding energy consumption of the whole national economy,and the carbon emissions are calculated.The result shows that the carbon emission of tourism transportation is the decisive factor of the total carbon emission of tourism,with an average value of 78.86%.It occupies the dominant position in the structure of carbon emission of tourism industry in Hubei Province.At the same time,the growth trend of carbon emission of tourism transportation tends to be flat.By comparing the tourism carbon emission of Hubei Province with the tourism income of Hubei Province,the trend of carbon emission change is positively correlated with the total tourism income.Then,the grey GM(1,1) model is constructed on the basis of the tourism carbon emission measurement data to forecast and analyze the tourism carbon emissions of Hubei Province from 2017 to 2021.The results show that the tourism carbon emissions of Hubei Province will continue to grow at a high speed in the future,reaching 77.0049 million tons by 2021,an increase of 114% compared with 2016.Secondly,according to Kaya identity,the influencing factors of tourism carbon emissions are decomposed into carbon emission effect,energy effect,economic effect and population effect.Then,the LMDI decomposition model of influencing factors is constructed to analyze the impact degree of the four effects.The analysis shows that: carbon emission effect and population effect are the main driving forces for the growth of Tourism carbon emissions in Hubei Province,and the impact of economic effect.Smaller,the impact of energy effect on carbon emissions is generally negative.Finally,in view of the above analysis results,this paper puts forward the main division of labor from the government,enterprises and tourists to promote the low-carbon development of tourism in our province,and makes policy guidance,planning design,operation development and administrative development mechanism design,and gives low-carbon development suggestions according to the current situation of tourism in Hubei Province.