Malthus Perspective Under The Influence Of The Black Death On The European Economy

The fourteenth century in history is a very special period, under the impact of the black death, the population declined to 1 / 2 ~ 1 / 3 of the original population, which is become the biggest obstacle to the European population growth in the future three centuries. As the most direct consequence, rising population mortality resulted in the dramatic decrease of social labor supply. According to the theory of labor supply and demand, changes in the labor supply will make the balanced wage level to change. Between 1500 and 1700, the average per capita income in Western Europe increased by 30%. Growth in per capita disposable income as a catalyst and driving force, resulting in a series of social and organizational mode of reaction. This period has also been considered by many economists as an important stage in Europe beyond China and the rest of the world. Under the assumption of Malthus, high level of per capita income will bring higher population growth, to devour any degree of economic progress, society as a whole economic return to the initial state and any economic development in the middle ages are not sustainable. But in Europe the special geographical and social environment, Europe under the environment of high per capita income population recovery is very slow. In the UK, for example, British until the middle of the 17 th century to roughly recovery to before the black death of population size. This is mainly due to the reasons for the war, trade, urbanization, the initiative to limit fertility, etc. Under the influence of these factors, the European higher wages and lower population growth rate of the anti Malthus scenario, this special development path to promote and affect the development of the European economy. In this paper, between 1345 and 1545 in Britain’s wages, the historical data of the export of wool, broadcloth exports, population, GDP, the impulse response model. Analysis of the external impact of the black death on the UK economy development trend.The article is divided into 5 parts. The first part is an introduction, mainly related to the purpose and significance of the study, the mainstream of domestic and foreign literature, research methods and the main content of the article, innovation and inadequate. The second part mainly introduces the plague broke out at the time and place, reason and social impact on the whole of europe. The third part, under the basic hypothesis of Malthus, build a two sector model to explain after the outbreak of the black death, resulting in European labor market, urbanization, war and take the initiative to constrain the growth of activities, such as a series of results, and in the framework of market theory interpretation to these results. The fourth part, mainly analysis the plague broking out, the trend of long-term development of Britain’s main economic variables, the impulse response function model, and to quantify the British 1345- 1545 a total of 200 years of wages, export and GDP changes under the impact of the black death. The fifth part, based on the above research conclusion, according to the historical data and economic theory combining the method that disease and economic development, the black death and the Eurasian "great divergence".According to the analysis of the above conclusions, bubonic plague that influence, without consideration of technology progress and institution improvement in, outbreaks of disease may reduce the welfare of some people, but also increase the opportunities to improve the welfare of another part of the other. In the short term, the bubonic plague outbreak will hinder the development of the economy, but to the long term, it is conducive to the improvement of economy and welfare..