Research On Optimal Allocation Of Hospital Resources In China Based On Theaverage Length Of Stay

ObjectiveBased on the average len gth of stay for our health resources configuration of a study hospital.Specific objectives include:(1) Analysis of the 2005-2014 hospital resources;(2) Analysis of the m ain factors affecting the average length of stay;(3) To measure and predictthe hospital resources to be saved by reducing one day of stay in average in China, pred ict its future im pacts, and to pro be into the importance of less average days of stay for hospital resource deployment.Methods(1) Comparative Analysis:using the time series analysis of 2005-2014 years in China, the average length of stay in hos pital, the number of beds, the use rate of hospital beds, the overall trend of bed turnover. Comparison of average length of stay in foreign countries with cross section anal ysis. (2) Literature analysis method:using the "average length of stay" as the key word of the article, and to analyze the factors that affect the average length of s tay in China. (3) Model analysis:A mathematical model was used for quantitative analysis of the actual impacts of one less day of stay in China’s hospitals for the hospital resour ces.(4) Prediction method:Combined with the grey fo recastingmodel and ARAIMm odel,forecast the num ber of hospital resources allocation in 2015-2020 years.Results(1) From 2005 to 2014, the num ber of beds in hospitals at all levels of increasing year by year, the total number of hospital beds over the years have mostly oversupply state. Big gap between the levels of utilization of hospital beds, beds and over-utilization of resources exist underutilized. (2)According to the literature analysis, the average of those dischar ged from hospital adm ission day long m ain factors have. (3)One hospita 1 day less could save 9.56% of a hospital’s total bed resources. According to the grow ing trend of hospital beds in China and the deployment relationship. (4)It is predicted that more hospital resources will be saved by one hospital day less in average from 2015 to 2020.Conclusions Shorter average days of stay a nd optimal deployment of hospital resources, should be based on quality of care. Less ineffective waiting time to shorten average days of stay can be breakthrough to improve the comprehensive efficiency of health resources.