Oilfield Development Fuzzy Planning Model And Application

In recent years, as the oilfield gradually develops, most of the oilfield in China is in the middle-late period of development. The development cost increases year by year, moisture content is rising constantly and the economic benefit gradually glides, which make the oilfield production face a tremendous challenge. Because of the oil isn't reproducibility, and the total reserves of oil is limited, it's a practical problem that how to improve the economic benefit of production, reduce production costs, and maximize the profit of production and yield. In fact, during the progress of oilfield development programming, fuzzy characters are widely existed in resource evaluation, oil price predicting, and market demanding and so on. The definite models which ignore fuzzy factors during development programming can not reflect the actual process. So, it's important and meaningful to study oilfield development programming based on fuzzy programming theory.In this thesis, we take the fuzzy uncertainty into consideration, and build a fuzzy objective resource-based programming model and a fuzzy coefficient type programming model for case study, in which the working load is chosen as decision variable. Also, a kind membership is introduced, and an improved Genetic Algorithm and Branch-and-Bound Algorithm are employed for the numerical solutions of these models. Finally we perform case study and sensitivity analysis based on real oilfield data, and then we obtain the corresponding conclusions.(1)In the optimization model, we regard the parameters such as oil price, cost, and investment as fuzzy parameter. The oil price which is given by fuzzy number can reflect the range and possibility degree of oil price, and reducing the risk caused by the price and cost. Thus the development planning more conforms to the objective reality and reduces the production risk of the oil field, at the same time, the optimization total yield of fuzzy programming is greater than deterministic programming.(2)Through the study of the sensitivity analysis of fuzzy model, we can obtain that the upper limit of investment, the tolerance of investment, the upper limit of cost, the tolerance of cost all would have a certain influence on the target value of model optimization.