The Study And Realization Of The Real-time Flood Forecasting System Based On Bayesian Method

Flood disaster seriously threatens the safety of the people's life and property.Accurate and reliable flood forecasting plays an important role in disaster prevention and the highly efficient use of water resource.With the rapid development of information technology,the real time rainfall and water information can be collected as the input of the real time flood forecasting system to simulate and updating the flood hydrograph,which is helpful to decision-making in flood control.In this study,the Jianxi river basin was chosen as the study area and the main contents and conclusions are as follows.(1)According to the characteristics of Jianxi Basin and the available hydrological observations,the XAJ model was selected to establish the flood forecasting model in different sub-basin,that was calibrated by using The SCE-UA algorithm.The calibration results show that the XAJ model has good performance in simulating the relationship of rainfall-runoff and can be used for real time flood forecasting in the Jianxi Basin.(2)The real time forecasting model based on the Bayesian method was used to update the simulated discharge of the XAJ model.Then the correction results were compared to those of AR model and the recursive least-squares estimate algorithm.The results show that,with respect to the performance of the median value of discharge series,the model based on the Bayesian method performs better than the other two models.What's more,the real time flood forecasting model based on the Bayesian method also provides the confidence interval of the discharge process,which provides guidance to the flood dispatching decision.(3)The real-time flood forecasting system was designed and realized based on the open source server GeoServer.The key problems were solved successfully,such as the software structure design,display of GIS map and charts on the web frontend,network safety,database access,and complex business logic.These design methods and key technologies can be also used for reference in other basins.