Risk Assessment Of Submarine Pipeline Leakage Accidents Based On Fuzzy Bayesian Network

With the continuous extension of seabed oil and gas pipelines,the risk of pipeline rupture and leakage has also increased.It has become one of the causes of marine oil spill accidents.Preventing leakage from seabed oil and gas pipelines has become a top priority.Compared with oil tanker and automobile,oil and gas pipeline has the advantages of large transport volume,stable and rarely affected by climate,so it is also safer.Because of this,seabed oil and gas pipelines are favored.The world's large offshore oil and gas operation areas such as Beihai,Mexico Bay and the Middle East Persian Gulf use submarine pipelines as oil and gas transportation mode for producing well fields and processing terminals.In recent years,as China's offshore oil and natural gas operation has increased significantly,the seabed oil and gas pipeline as a transportation mode has become more and more popular,covering most parts of the eastern and western parts of Bohai and the East China Sea and some parts of the East China Sea.First of all,this topic mainly aims at the risk assessment of the serious fire leakage caused by the leakage of the submarine pipeline.According to the production process and the common point of the enterprise,the Reason model is determined and transformed into a Bayesian network.Secondly,we use trapezoidal fuzzy number and expert opinion to get the probability of root node occurrence and the influence degree of multiple parent nodes,and reduce the workload of experts by using Noisy-or model.Full consideration is given to the leakage of the submarine pipeline due to unknown reasons.The traditional evaluation method can not take into account the shortcomings of the risk of the uncertain factors.Finally,based on the relevant situation of a Bohai oil production company,we use fuzzy Bayesian network and Reason model to evaluate the risk of the company.The risk assessment conclusions and also put forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the enterprise after the fire accident were analyzed by using the Bayesian network analysis tool to calculate the leakage accident in the fire under the premise,the root node probability value to verify the risk assessment theory.This paper is based on the Bayesian network,combined with the trapezoidal fuzzy number and Noisy-Or model,the Reason model is transformed into Bayesian network risk assessment for offshore oil production enterprises,improve the quantitative analysis of the model,to further improve the Reason model,but also provides an efficient and accurate risk assessment for uncertain events way.