Supply Chain Risk Control Optimization Model For Large Aircraft Development Based On Bayesian Network

With the increasingly fierce competition in globalization,the increasingly complex structure and function of products,the high degree of uncertainty in technology management,and the competition of the interests of the main players,the collaborative development of supply chains for large aircraft has become more fragile.The large aircraft development supply chain includes multi-level suppliers,and the supply has a long lead time.It is a complex and changeable system environment with high investment,high technical content and high cost.Due to business transactions between enterprises in the supply chain,supply chain risks are also spread among various enterprises in the supply chain in the form of information flow,logistics,and capital flow.Risks are accumulated,amplified,or mutated during the process of dissemination.Carriers spread throughout the supply chain,creating a crisis for the entire supply chain.Although companies may control potential risk factors in the supply chain in different ways,the understanding of these regulatory mechanisms is very limited.How to develop the risk mechanism of the supply chain based on the risk characteristics of the large aircraft,explore the evolution mechanism between risks,and effectively control the risk from the root cause under the resource constraints,which is essential for the competitiveness and long-term development of the enterprise.Therefore,the following research has been done in this paper.Firstly,in order to describe the risk action process in the supply chain of large aircraft development,and to develop the risk factors of supply chain business process for large aircraft development,a Bayesian network inference model considering the internal linkage of risk factors is constructed.In the aspect of risk control,comprehensively consider the risk attitudes of decision makers and supply chain performance,combined with the prospect theory,put forward a strategy selection optimization model considering the risk mitigation strategy foreground value and risk mitigation cost constraint,and solve the supply chain risk control problem from the perspective of strategy selection.Secondly,aiming at the problem that it is difficult to determine the probability of potential risk in the supply chain of large aircraft development,a risk probability determination model based on the linkage of incomplete prior information and Bayesian network reasoning is established.For multiple risk factors and differentiated sensitivity of resources to different risk factors,the risk value in supply chain is measured based on Bayesian network,and the control resource investment optimization model of minimizing risk network loss under limited resource constraints is proposed to solve the problem of supply chain risk control from the perspective of resource allocation.Finally,aiming at the dynamic evolution of risk factors in the supply chain of large aircraft development with time,the dynamic Bayesian network model is used to describe the transformation process of risk factors among time series.Based on the dynamic risk network of supply chain,considering the sensitive characteristics of different resources to risk nodes at different time,the resource input optimization model of minimizing risk network loss and input cost under resource constraints is established,and the risk control problem of supply chain is solved from the perspective of resource allocation based on the dynamic time sequence.