Characteristics Of Climatic Resources And Extreme Climate Events In Gansu Province And Their Effects On Winter Wheat Productivity

Based on the historical meteorological observation data of 26 meteorological observation sites in Gansu Province from 1981 to 2010 and the meteorological data of 0.5°x0.5° grid data from 1981 to 2099 under the RCP4.5 scenario simulated by the RegCM4 climate model,the paper analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of climate resources and extreme climatic events of Gansu Province in the future,which is on the condition of four different periods.Combined with the model of the WOFOST winter wheat crop,the study quantitatively assesses the impact of future climate change on the light-temperature production potential and climate production potential of winter wheat in Gansu Province,in order to explore specific and original ways of disaster prevention and reduction,for the future adjustment of regional agricultural planting structure and the further formulation of industrial countermeasures.The main conclusions obtained in this paper are as follows:1.Compared with the past(1981-2010),the climate of Gansu Province in the next 89 years(2011-2099)tends to be warm and humid.In Gansu Province,the solar radiation increases from southeast to northwest.Over time,except for the increase of solar radiation in Sunan district,the rest regions show a decreasing trend.From 2071 to 2099,the boundary of the solar radiation in the region of Gansu has a trend to expand to the north.The average temperature in space and time is on an upward trend.While the climatic tendency rate of each period shows a downward trend,the temperature increase gradually weakens.The amount of precipitation fluctuates greatly from year to year,spatially decreasing from southeast to northwest,but gradually increasing in time,and the increase gradually weakens.2.The extreme high temperature events in Gansu Province increased obviously with the climate warming.The number of hot days and hot nights both increased in time and space.Significantly hot days in Dunhuang and hot nights in southern Longnan.Whereas,the extreme low temperature events in Gansu Province decreased.Except for southern Longnan,the number of icing days decreased in both time and space,and the number of icing days in Wushaoling district,southwest Gansu,the west of Tianshui,and most of Dingxi decreased most significantly.The number of frost days decreased in both time and space.All the scales showed a downward trend,and the number of frost days decreased most in the south-central South and south-central Gansu.The extreme precipitation events in Gansu Province increased.The simple precipitation intensity showed an increasing trend on both spatial and temporal scales,and the western and northeastern Jiuquan increased most significantly.3.The light-temperature potential of winter wheat in Gansu Province fluctuates and declines with time as a whole,which decreases spatially from southeast to northwest.The light-temperature potential of the Wushaoling area,northeastern Wuwei and southwestern Gannan increased with time,and the potential for light-temperature production in the rest of the area showed a gradual decrease.The climate production potential of winter wheat in Gansu Province fluctuates along a downward trend and decreases from southeast to northwest.The potential of climate in the northern part of Wuwei,northern part of Baiyin,major part of Jinchang,eastern part of Zhangye and west of Jiayuguan increased with time,while the rest of the regions showed a downward trend.Under the background of climate change,the winter wheat in the north of Longzhong are suitable,and the district has the potential to expand northwards.The potential ratio of Gansu Province fluctuates and increases with time,but spatially decreases from southeast to northwest.And the area of high value area of the potential ratio tends to decrease over time.