| Under the background of global warming,the significant changes of regional climate will have an impact on the agricultural production and food security in Liaoning Province.The estimation of the climate potential productivity of maize not only reflects the coordination degree of climate productivity and climate resources and shows the difference regional changes of study area,also can find out the driving factors of climate potential productivity.At present,there were many studies on the potential productivity of maize in Northeast China.However,the spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors of climate potential productivity have been lack of research during the maize grown period in Liaoning Province.According to the day-to-day meteorological observation data of twenty-four stations,with the progress of light-temperature-water,to estimate photosynthetic potential productivity,light temperature potential productivity and climate potential productivity of maize during growth period by the principle of“attenuation method”in Liaoning Province from 1966 to 2015.In Combination with Geographical Information System?GIS?,Empirical Orthogonal Function?EOF?and Rotate Empirical Orthogonal Function?REOF?analysis research the spatial distribution characteristics of climate potential productivity of maize.The utilization analysis of agriculture climatic resources and climate climate potential productivity of maize was predicted based on climate change.The main conclusions are as follows:?1?Climate change during maize growth period in Liaoning Province from 1966 to 2015:there have a remarkable warming trend in the near 50 years,the trend of mean temperature is rise and upward rate at0.18?·10a-1,the solar radiation and the total precipitation show a non-significant declining trend and downward rate at 9.23 mm·10a-11 and 9 MJ·m-2·10a-1.?2?Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of photosynthetic potential productivity and light temperature potential productivity of maize growth period in the near 50 years:the photosynthetic potential productivity of maize show a downward trend,and the spatial distribution is consistent with the trend of surface solar radiation that decreasing gradually from southwest to northeast.The light temperature potential productivity of maize is on the rise,and the spatial distribution is in the form of an equally-spaced band with gradually shifts from the high-valued central area to the eastern.The average temperature rise is the main driving factor for light temperature potential productivity of maize.?3?The spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of climate potential productivity of maize growth period in Liaoning Province in the near 50 years:the climate potential productivity of maize has generally risen,since the 21st century,it increase significantly.The midland region as the center,southwest coastal areas and eastern mountain regions,north and southwest,lower reaches of the Yalu River in the east and semi-arid regions in the west were showed a reverse trend.The climate potential productivity of maize is not only affect by climate conditions such as temperature,radiation and precipitation,but also affect by geographical location and topography,and there are great differences in spatial distribution.?4?Prediction of climate potential productivity of maize and utilization ratio of agroclimatic resources in Liaoning Province:The regression equation predicts that the future climate potential productivity of maize will increase at 50.38 kg·hm-2·10a-1.From 1980 to 2015,maize production showed a significant increase,and the utilization rate of photosynthesis and light-temperature resources of maize were shown a significant increase trend.The utilization ratio of agricultural climatic resources also showed a significant increase trend.Considering only the actual situation of the utilization of climate resources,there is still a possibility of greater production increase of maize in the future.?5?Under the influence of climate change,the reduction of solar radiation may lead the reduction of photosynthetic potential productivity of maize in Liaoning Province.With the continuous climatic warming trend,the light temperature potential productivity of maize will increase in the future.The decrease in precipitation is not conducive to the increase of the climate potential productivity of maize,but its role is small.When precipitation can meet grown demand of maize,climate potential productivity of maize may remain upward and infrequently change.With the climate warming,various regions have adopted rational planning and planting of regional layouts to maize with climate change.Strengthened construction of agricultural infrastructure such as water conservancy and field management,which can effectively expand maize production and maintain national agricultural production stability and food security.The results above research illustrate the spatial-temporal variation of climate change and potential productivity of maize during growth period in Liaoning Province from 1966 to 2015.The study provide scientific insights on climate change and data support for digging deeper into climate potential productivity,it have great guidance to achieve high yield of maize in Liaoning Province. |
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