Spatial And Temporal Distribution Of Heat Resources And Its Change Trend In Anhui Province

Heat is a controlling factor of agricultural production activities,and has important guiding significance for agricultural production.Taking Anhui Province as the study area,the spatial and temporal distribution of heat resources is discussed with the factors of heat resources(annual average emperature,accumulated temperature?0?,accumulated temperature?5?,accumulated temperature?15?,accumulated temperature?20?,accumulated temperature?25?,etc.)Based on the daily temperature data of 20 stations in Anhui province for 1960-2012 years,using GIS technology,the spatial analysis model of heat resource elements is established by multiple regression method,and spatial interpolation is carried out to explore the spatial distribution of heat resources in Anhui province.The typical representative sites were selected by SPSS,and the distribution of heat resources in time series was studied from zonal point of view.The time variation and periodic changes of heat resources in Anhui province were analyzed by means of climate tendency rate,continuous day change,M-K mutation test and wavelet analysis.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Comparing the three spatial interpolation methods of inverse distance weighting,Kriging interpolation and spline function method,we find that the inverse distance weighting method has less error than the Kriging interpolation method and spline interpolation method,and its spatial rasterization is finer.Therefore,the use of multivariate regression method and inverse distance weighting method to rasterize the heat resource elements in Anhui Province can improve the degree of refinement of heat resource assessment and analysis.(2)The system clustering method is used to select the key elements of heat resources to classify the sites,and on this basis,the representative sites are selected.The clustering results are divided into three categories,and the heat resources in different sites have convergence.The average temperature of the first type of site is between 16-18°C,the accumulated temperature of ?5°C is between 5600-5900°C;the annual average temperature of the second type of site is between 10-15°C,and the accumulated temperature of ?5°C is between 5000-5300°C.However,the location of Dangshan is relatively northerly,and there is a big difference in the distribution of heat resources with the surrounding sites,so it is classified as a separate type.(3)The six sites including Dangshan,Mengcheng,Shouxian,Hefei,Tongling and Tunxi were selected as weft zonal sites,and heat resources showed obvious weft zonal changes.On the whole,the heat resources show an increasing trend in time series,which has a great correlation with climate warming.After the year of mutation,the heat resources at each site showed an upward trend with slightly different levels of increase.Although the periodical changes are not obvious,they are all concentrated in a certain year.(4)The spatial analysis of the heatl resource elements in Anhui Province showed that the established spatial distribution models of the heat resource elements and stations in Anhui Province,including latitude,longitude,and altitude,passed the significance test of ?=0.01.The model indicated that the spatial distribution of heat resources had a significant correlation with the latitude and longitude and altitude.