Impacts Of Five Crisis Events On Chinese Inbound Tourism Scale

China Inbound tourism,as the earliest and fastest growing market among the three major markets in tourism,has made a significant contribution to the tourism industry.Development of Chinese inbound tourism was both cyclical and seasonal with sensitivity to the external environment.Analyzing the seasonal effects and sensitivity to the external environment helped evaluating the current development of inbound tourism and future prediction.Meanwhile,it helped the tourism administration and government departments inbound tourism to make decision.Firstly,this paper reviewed the research area and research methods of inbound tourism.Meanwhile,research of impacts of crises on inbound tourism scale was reviewed.According to this result,this paper put forward an indirect method which based on inbound tourist source.Meanwhile,TBTL-IA combined model which was the combination of TBTL model and intervention analysis model was proposed.Next,R software and Eviews software were used to establish the TBTL-IA combined model with data of Chinese inbound tourism scale from Jan 1998 to Jan 2016 in direct method and indirect method respectively.Then specific mathematical expressions were obtained and the impacts of crises on inbound tourism scale was given.Next,one-step-forward forecasting method was used to predict the number of Chinese inbound tourists from Jul 2015 to Feb 2016.Finally,this paper compared TBTL-IA combined model with other normal models in fitting effect and predicting effect.The findings were as follows:(1)Development of Chinese inbound tourism was both cyclical and seasonal.(2)Inbound tourism was often affected by crisis events and more sensitive to global crisis events.(3)Loss of tourists by indirect method was more specific and more in line with the actual situation.(4)TBTL-IA combined model performed better than normal models in fitting effect and predicting effect.It was more accurate to predict the number of inbound tourists using the indirect method.There are two innovations in this paper:(1)This paper put forward an indirect method which based on inbound tourist source.Meanwhile,TBTL-IA combined model was proposed based on the needs of model optimization.(2)Unlike other scholars who just studied crisis events in a short period of time,the crisis events analyzed in this paper were distributed from 1998 to 2016,including the "9.11" incident,the Asian financial crisis,SARS incident,global economic crisis and so on.