Modeling And Empiricalanalysis Of Energy Substitution System Based On Nonlinear Dynamics

With the deepening of economic globalization,it will inevitably cause a large amount of energy consumption,result in a sharp increase in carbon emissions,and ultimately cause great harm to the ecological environment.In the short term,it may give rise to a decrease in GDP because of the closure of heavy polluting enterprises.However,the development of renewable energy industry will bring new economic growth points through technological innovation and improvement of equipment in the long run.Therefore,it has great significance to explore the coupling and interaction between carbon emissions,economic growth and renewable energy development.This paper analyzes the relationship between carbon emissions,GDP and installed capacity of renewable energy.We establishes an energy substitution model based on nonlinear differential equations.The dynamic behaviors of the model were discussed by Routh-Hurwitz lemma and Lyapunov stability theory.The evolution of the system from stable state,Hopf bifurcation point to chaotic attractor with the change of parameters was analyzed.Based on the actual data of the United States and China,genetic algorithm was used to identify the parameters in the energy substitution system.The corresponding control measures and policy recommendations in the Chinese energy market were given.Finally,a linear feedback control was performed on the system.We conclude that the chaotic system can be controlled to a stable positive balance point.