Research On Intergenerational Succession Ofagricultural Management

The aging of the agricultural labor force has become a global trend.It has a very significant negative impact on a country's agricultural competitiveness,food and other agricultural products supplies and rural socio-economic development.Countries such as the United States and Japan facing the challenge of aging have long recognized the serious consequences of the aging of the agricultural population.In order to ensure the sustainable development of their agriculture,they are exploring feasible countermeasures.For China,a country with a large population,the consequences of the aging of the agricultural population are more serious and should be taken seriously.In view of risks such as the aging of China's agricultural population and the reduction of its agricultural competitiveness,domestic scholars' solutions mainly focus on land transfer and the cultivation of new business subjects.The application practice of developed economies in North America,East Asia and Europe shows that the main solution to the ageing of the Agricultural Population is the intergenerational succession of agricultural management.It has been found that the intergenerational succession of agricultural management in China is facing difficulties.It is an urgent problem to be solved whether the intergenerational succession in China is really facing difficulties and what are the main factors affecting it.Based on the above research background,the investigation team conducts a survey on the agricultural management of middle-aged and old-age farmers in Shandong Province,aiming to understand the current intergenerational inheritance of agricultural management,finding out the problems and causes in the process of intergenerational inheritance,and putting forward countermeasures and suggestions,which provides theoretical experience for rational understanding of the economic phenomena and outstanding problems in the development of contemporary agricultural management.The orderly intergenerational succession of Chinese agricultural management is closely related to the intergenerational transmission willingness of the father-generation farmers and the intergenerational inheritance willingness of the farmers' children.Firstly,the paper analyzes the intergenerational transmission willingness of the fathergeneration farmers,and establishes the binary discrete choice model,Tobit model and threshold regression model to analyze the determinants of the intergenerational transmission willingness of the father-generation farmers.Then it analyzes the intergenerational inheritance intention of farmers' children and introduces the binary discrete choice model to discuss the factors influencing the intergenerational inheritance of farmers' children.On this basis,in order to further study the intergenerational inheritance of farmers' children,the paper finally makes an empirical analysis on the timing of the inheritance of farmers' children.The results show that there is a dilemma in intergenerational succession of agricultural management,and the willingness of succession is weak as a whole.One third of the father-generation farmers in the sample have a clear tendency of "Away from agriculture",and one quarter of the farmers' children are willing to inherit the agricultural resources of their parents.The number of male labor force in the family has a significant positive impact on the intergenerational transmission willingness of the father-generation farmers,and the number of migrant workers or businessmen throughout the year has a significant negative impact on the intergenerational transmission willingness of the father-generation farmers.The aged peasant households in plain area have strong tendency to leave agriculture.In addition,on the whole,there is a positive correlation between age and the intergenerational transmission willingness of the fathergeneration farmers,but there are significant differences in the intergenerational transmission willingness of the father-generation farmers in different age groups.The age difference of the father-generation farmers under the age of 69 does not significantly affect their intergenerational transmission intention.the father-generation farmers of 69 years old and above have a strong tendency to leave agriculture.Whether the children of farmers return home in the busy season during the last two years,children consider the intergenerational transmission willingness of the father-generation farmers,the degree of willingness of the father-generation farmers to transmit and total population of father-generation families have significant positive effects on the willingness of the inheritance of farmers' children.Among them,whether the children of farmers return home in the busy season during the last two years,the degree of willingness of the father-generation farmers to transmit negative affect their time period.Farmer cooperatives significantly shorten the inheritance time period of farmers' children,while family farms significantly extend the time period of inheritance of farmers' children.In addition,there is a significant negative correlation between age and the time period of intergenerational inheritance of farmers' children.The influence of the age change of the farmers' children younger than 38 years old on the inheritance time period is significantly higher than that of the farmers' children older than 38 years old.In order to ensure the sustainability of intergenerational succession of Chinese agricultural management,the paper proposes the following countermeasures: Agriculture,especially cash crops such as mulberry,hemp,tea,vegetables and fruits,remains the main source of income for farmers in hilly and mountainous areas.Improving the basic agricultural production conditions in hilly mountainous areas as one of the measures to improve farmers' recognition of farming,its importance cannot be ignored.In order to further improve farmers' farming income and promote the healthy development of agriculture,the government should continue to adhere to and improve the new types of agricultural businesses system.In addition,the government should further improve the preferential policies for rural and rural farmers to return to farming.This measure can not only alleviate the aging degree of rural labor force and solve the problem of rural old-age care,but also promote the efficient and high-quality development of modern agriculture.