Analysis On The Dynamic Effect Of Industrial Structure And Energy Consumption Structure On Energy Intensity In India

Energy is the main driver of economic growth.India's economy has grown at a compound annual rate of 6.6%,making it one of the fastest-growing countries in the world.As the main driving force of India's economic growth,the contribution rate of the tertiary industry to the economy has exceeded 55%.However,there is still a certain gap with the developed countries.A fast-growing economy needs enough energy support.But India has a long-standing shortage of energy supplies.India is relatively rich in coal resources,but oil and gas are extremely scarce.The energy needed for economic development mainly depends on coal supply.The single energy consumption structure based on coal and the shortage of energy will not only pose a great threat to India's energy security,but also restrict the development of economy.Therefore,actively developing new energy and reducing energy intensity are the main ways to solve the contradiction between energy supply and demand in India.Industrial structure and energy consumption structure have always been considered to be two important factors affecting energy intensity.Therefore,from this point of view,this paper divides the Indian economy into three major industries,and analyzes the evolution characteristics of each industry and its internal structure in turn.Secondly,by analyzing the situation of energy supply and demand in India and the changes of various energy consumption,this paper explores the evolution characteristics of energy consumption structure in India.Then by comparing the energy intensity,industrial structure and energy consumption structure of India,Japan and China,we find out the law between industrial structure,energy consumption structure and energy intensity' change.Finally,by means of vector auto-regression model,impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis,the dynamic relationship between industrial structure and energy consumption structure and the change of energy intensity in India is tested.The results show that the short-term effect of the energy consumption structure on the Indian energy intensity is not stable and the long-term impact is almost little.In the first phase,the higher the proportion of coal in energy consumption,the greater the energy intensity.In the second phase,this positive effect is transformed into a negative one.From the third phase,the impact of coal consumption on energy intensity is almost zero.The industrial structure has a inhibitory effect on India's energy intensity both in the short term and in the long run.That is,increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry helps to reduce the energy intensity,and this negative impact increases gradually with the passage of time.In the long run,the impact of industrial structure on energy intensity in India is much greater than that of energy consumption structure.Therefore,India can effectively reduce energy intensity by promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.