Research On The Optimization Of Primary Energy Consumption Structure In China Based On System Dynamics

Climate and environmental pollution of our country have become more and more prominently,which pose a severe challenge to the traditional energy consumption model.China has put forward a new primary energy consumption pattern at the background of low carbon development.The strategy to optimize the structure of primary energy consumption is an important measure to improve the status of energy consumption,which regards the total primary energy consumption as the premise to reduce coal,oil consumption,increasing the proportion of clean energy.Therefore,under the constraints of economic development and carbon emissions,how to promote the optimization of primary energy consumption structure is an urgent problem to be solved.This paper first analyzes the connotation and constraint of energy consumption structure optimization under the background of low carbon development in China,introducing the basic theory for the optimization of primary energy,basic principle and system dynamics modeling steps.Summing up the main problems which energy consumption structure optimization faces from the perspective of production and consumption,decomposing the main factors of the system of primary energy consumption from the view of energy saving and emission reduction,then establish the system of energy consumption of the system dynamics(SD)model.By passing the validity test,firstly,performing the initial model and analyzing the trend of development of the primary energy consumption structure in China under the existing policies;Second,using scenario analysis method to change the control variables in primary energy consumption system,simulating the changes of structure and constraint index of primary energy consumption system under different policy adjustments,then select out the feasible optimization path.Finally,according to the relationship between the elements of the SD system,and the consumption situation of primary energy,the paper puts forward some corresponding suggestions.The present situation of energy consumption is not conducive to the optimization of primary energy consumption.Then carrying on the simulation system of primary energy consumption by SD method,the results show that in the initial conditions,the targets of energy consumption structure and low carbon constraint are difficult to achieve.By setting different scenarios,to adjust the controllable variables in SD model,simulate and calculate the index values and critical values under different scenarios.Selecting out the critical value of the controllable variables which can meet the basic optimization of primary energy consumption structure and low carbon development.These controllable variables and its critical value will constitute the path to optimize the energy consumption structure.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions to optimize the primary energy consumption structure in china.