Prediction And Research Of Steam Coal Price Based On ARIMA And SVR Model

Coal is an important energy source for production.Based on China's resource endowment,coal will still be the largest energy source in China for a long time.Among the types of coal,the output of steam coal is far more than that of coking coal,anthracite and injection coal.Steam coal is mainly used in electric power,chemical industry,building materials,metallurgical industry,and thermal power generation accounts for the largest proportion of steam coal consumption.Electricity is an indispensable material condition for economic production and people's life.The importance of generating steam coal is self-evident.The price fluctuation of steam coal affects every aspect of economic life.In recent years,spot price of steam coal market fluctuates greatly.Analyzing the current situation of steam coal market,price formation mechanism and influencing factors,it is found that the price formation of steam coal has its particularity,and the market situation has also undergone tremendous changes.The original research and prediction of steam coal price is no longer applicable to the current situation,so it is necessary to find new prediction methods to study and forecast spot price of steam coal.In order to get better forecasting results,this paper chooses ARIMA and SVR forecasting methods,and takes spot price of steam coal market as sample data in recent six years,respectively,to forecast the price of steam coal.It proves that the two models have their own advantages,and the SVR model with PSO algorithm has better forecasting effect on parameter optimization.In order to further improve the prediction accuracy,this paper combines ARIMA model and SVR model.The results show that the parallel combination method has better applicability in the prediction of spot price of steam coal.Because the price trend of power coal market has changed in recent years,this paper chooses the sample data after price change through the change point detection,and forecasts the spot price of power coal based on ARIMA,SVR and their combination model.It proves that under the current market situation,the prediction accuracy of steam coal price is still applicable.In addition to the application in coal industry,ARIMA-SVR combination model has practical significance in forecasting agricultural products,chemical products prices,stock index,logistics demand,tourism demand and so on.