Prediction Of Egg Price In Boxing County Based On Exponential Smoothing Model And ARIMA Model

Eggs are widely welcomed because of its rich nutrition(rich in various amino acids,vitamins and so on),and play a decisive role in the residents' consumption.Therefore,the fluctuation of egg prices is directly related to the vital interests of the broad masses of the people.And there have been several fluctuations of egg prices in recent years,resulting in a significant impact on the production and life of the residents.For example:in August 2014,the price of eggs of Boxing County exceeded 6 yuan,while in March 2017 to May,the average price of eggs is as low as 2.5 yuan.So it is necessary to forecast egg prices,according to the characteristics of its price fluctuation.Accurately grasp the egg prices in the future,so that the market risk will be avoided and the producers business decisions and consumption activities will be guided well.And to predict the price of eggs accurately can help the relevant government departments to carry out macro-control,stabilize the stability of the egg market price,and promote its healthy and orderly development.For the prediction of egg prices,many scholars have done the research,The models used by many scholars and predecessors are ARIMA model and grey forecasting model,etc.Few people apply exponential smoothing models to egg price forecasting.As we all know,exponential smoothing model is widely used in economy,health,military and other fields.This paper innovatively verifies the prediction effect of this model on egg price,and compares it with ARIMA model.I do the reserch and forecast with egg price data for the first Wednesday of Boxing County Price Bureau from January 2009 to December 2016.At first,the trend and seasonal fluctuations of the egg prise are analyzed carefully in the article.And then the exponential smoothing model and ARIMA model are used to predict the egg prices.By comparing the prediction accuracy and the fitting effect of the two models,the most suitable statistical model is selected to guide the production and life practice.The results show that the mean square error RMSE,mean absolute error percentage error MAPE,and normal BIC(Bias rule)and other statistics values of the exponential smoothing model are less than that of ARIMA model,So the exponential smoothing model has better prediction effect.Then the optimal model is applied to analyze the forecast results of the egg price of Boxing country in the next two years.Prediction results show that the minimum and maximum price of eggs appeared in March and September,which has obvious seasonal fluctuations.This is closely related to the seasonality of consumer demand.Based on this,the government,farmers and consumers should arrange production and life rationally according to their own characteristics in order to reduce risk and stabilize the market.At last,opinions and suggestions for stabilizing egg prices are put forward from the sides of government,farmers and consumers.The government should strengthen technical guidance to breeders,guide them to plan production scientifically,improve the monitoring and early warning system of egg prices and product quality and safety monitoring system,and actively promote the improvement of egg insurance business.Farmers should strengthen horizontal linkage,and expand market discourse.On the one hand,it can provide the reference for the decision-making of the government,on the other hand,it can provide information technology support for the majority of farmers,so that farmers can quickly grasp the development of the market and adapt to the changes in the market.Invest rationally and reduce unnecessary losses.In addition,it can also guide consumers in a reasonable mix of nutrition on the basis of rational consumption,must not blindly follow the trend.