Multi-Agent Simulation Of The Impact Of Farmers' Livelihoods On Landscape In Small Watersheds In Loess Hilly Region

The project of returning farmland to forest in the loess hilly area has a certain impact on the livelihood of farmers.In order to obtain the consequences of the long-term shaping of the landscape of the farmland in the farmland of the reclaimed farmland,this paper takes XianNanGou Watershed in Ansai District,Yan'an City,Shaanxi Province.The study area is designed to simulate changes in watershed landscapes at different time scales in different livelihood scenarios.Based on farmer survey,land use,ploughing plaque,biomass sampling and other data,using ArcGIS platform and Agent Analyst modeling plug-in,based on Multi-Agent System(MAS)theory,drawing on LUDAS modeling ideas,this paper establishes a Multi-agent model SWaSAS for farmers'livelihood behavior and landscape response.This paper sets up four livelihood scenarios,namely one baseline scenario(S0,ie,90 yuan/(mu a)and 42.6%)to extend the status quo,and three experimental scenarios(S1,S2,S3)of the livelihood strategy hypothesis,among which The compensation for returning farmland in S1 is 0 yuan/(mu a),the labor transfer rate is 42.6%,the compensation for returning farmland for S2 is 500 yuan/(mu a),the labor transfer rate is 100%,and the compensation for returning farmland for S3 is 300 yuan/(mu a),the labor transfer rate is 70%.This serves as an external core input parameter to the SWaSAS model.This paper selects the total area of three planting types,the total biomass of forest and grassland in the basin,and the income ratio of five kinds of livelihood strategies(grain,greenhouse,orchard,labor,and aquaculture)as the output indicators of the model.Independent repeat experiments were carried out under the baseline scenario S0,and the total population in the basin was used as the output index.The uncertainty analysis was carried out by SPSS software to verify the stability of the model.The results of the scenario simulation are as follows:(1)Under the same conditions,the adjustment of the livelihood strategy of the farmers is not sensitive to the changes of 90 yuan/(mu·a)and 0 yuan/(mu·a),and the existing policy environment remains unchanged.The cancellation of the compensation for returning farmland will not affect the existing livelihood strategies of the farmers in the XianNanGou Valley.(2)The above-ground biomass growth pattern of forest grassland in the XianNanGou watershed has no significant difference under various hypothetical scenarios.The adjustment of farmers' livelihood strategies in the watershed has not been at the expense of the existing landscape ecology.