Study On Oil Spill Risk Assessment Of Oil Production Platforms In The East China Sea

With the development of economy and the progress of science and technology,petroleum energy occupies a more and more important position in the development of our country,and has become the most needed and imported energy.The increase of oil is accompanied by the rapid development of oil production,transportation and other industries in various sea areas,and the probability of oil spill event caused by equipment failure and human operation error is also increased accordingly.The oil spill scale of offshore platform is relatively large,which results in the waste of oil resources,and also seriously pollutes the marine environment and destroys ecological resources.The East China Sea oilfield intersects with the fishing grounds outside the river and outside the fish,adjacent to Zhoushan fishing ground,and has abundant fishery resources.If the oil spill accident occurs in the East China Sea area,it will have a destructive impact on the fishery and aquaculture industry,which will seriously affect the economic development and the protection of the marine environment,resulting in heavy losses.Therefore,it is of great value to study the oil spill risk of oil production platform in the East China Sea,to analyze the probability of oil spill accident and the area affected by oil spill,to improve the safety of oil production platform and to reduce the oil spill risk.On the basis of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,Monte Carlo method,Crystal Ball is introduced to evaluate the oil spill risk grade of the oil production platform in the East China Sea,and the probability of oil spill accident of the oil production platform in the East China Sea is obtained by combining the curtain analysis method and the DNV offshore oil production platform spill probability model.At the same time,according to the current and wind field in the East China Sea,the drift direction and distance of the oil spill accident in the East China Sea are calculated by using the empirical formula of oil spill expansion.The results show that:(1)the oil spill risk range of the oil production platform in the East China Sea is between 1.59 ? 3.06,the average value is 2.28,and the overall risk grade is medium and low.(2)the probability of oil spill accident of the oil production platform in the East China Sea is 4.57 ? 10 / 2;Among the seven oil spill scenes,the internal factors of scene 1 platform lead to the highest probability of oil spill accident in the East China Sea oil production platform,and among the four oil spill accident levels,the probability of general oil spill accident in the East China Sea oil production platform is the highest 4.57 ? 10 / 2,and the influence degree of the general oil spill accident is different in different seasons.The influence area of oil spill in summer is 49.63 × 500.12 square kilometers after 8 days,and 27.40 ? 277.85 square kilometers after 8 days of oil spill in winter,and the affected area in winter is smaller than that in summer,and the influence area of oil spill in winter is 27.40 × 277.85 square kilometers after 8 days of oil spill.Based on the conclusion,the risk management countermeasures are put forward:(1)the failure of the platform itself is the main cause of the oil spill accident of the oil production platform in the East China Sea,so it is necessary to ensure the daily maintenance intensity and frequency of the platform and regularly detect the corrosion degree of the underwater structure.(2)the geological oil spill and emergency ability are the main reasons for the high overall risk level of the oil production platform in the East China Sea,and it is suggested that the platform should pay attention to the downhole situation in real time.To ensure the normal operation of pressure,atmospheric pressure devices and other protective devices,and increase the cruising frequency.(3)Oil spill accidents occur on the oil production platform in the East China Sea,and the impact area is larger in summer than in winter,so the risk of oil spill accidents in summer should be emphasized.Oil spill is the key controllable factor affecting the area of oil spill,which can reduce the oil storage and risk of the platform according to the situation.The duration of oil spill is also an important factor affecting the degree of oil spill pollution.Under the same other conditions,the longer the duration of oil spill,the greater the influence area of oil spill drift on the sea surface.It can speed up the emergency response speed to reduce the impact of oil spill pollution on the marine environment.(4)the oil exploration and development in the East China Sea is mainly condensate oil,good volatility,low durability API,difficult to recover,can be used combustion method for oil spill treatment,in order to reduce the harm of oil spill to biological and ecological resources.This study is based on the characteristics of the oil production platform in the East China Sea and the unique characteristics of its petroleum resources.It not only comprehensively evaluates the oil spill risk probability and the area of the oil spill,but also makes the research result more comprehensive and scientific.At the same time,the evaluation result is quantified,and the subjective error is reduced to a greater extent.It is hoped to provide some technical and theoretical support to the risk management of offshore oil production platform in the East China Sea,and to help protect the biological and ecological resources in the East China Sea.