The Oil Spill Risk Assessment Of Tankers In Shenzhen Port Based On Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluate

Maritime transportation has always been the main way of oil transportation due to its indicators and the significant advantages of lower cost and higher shipping volume.However,the frequent occurrence of ship oil spill accidents has led to the increasingly serious over sea.According to statistics,in the 1970s,there were an average of two tanker accidents per week worldwide,such as the 1967 US tanker "Torrey Canyon" sunk on the English Channel and the 1976 "Olympic Brave" tanker hit by a storm on the French coast,Hull breakage,1989 "Exxon Valdez" stranded,etc.The oil spill accidents of such tankers have a huge impact on the marine environment,social-economic and people's health,and these cases drew the International Maritime Organization's(IMO)attention,and then the MARPOL(International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships)had been formulated to protect the marine environment.In recent years,the Dalian Port "7·16" explosion oil spill accident and the East China Sea "Sanchi" collision oil spill accident once again sounded the alarm to us,and we must focus on the port ship transportation safety to protect the crew life and ships and property safety,and maintenance of the marine environment.The average number of tankers entering and leaving Shenzhen Port from 2011 to 2017 was 11,700,which was the second largest number ship type in the port.The Shenzhen Port is divided into eastern port and western port,and there have been oil spills accidents from tankers,which have caused considerable losses.Therefore,it is necessary to evaluate the oil spill risk of oil tankers in Shenzhen Port,ensuring the safety of personnel life and tankers,preventing environmental pollution.This paper combines the actual project to carry out innovative research on the oil spill risk evaluation index system,evaluation model,example programming calculation and countermeasure suggestions for oil tankers entering and leaving the port area;mainly including:(1)Construct an oil spill risk assessment indicator system for oil tankers in coastal ports.The factors that probably have an influence on the safety of tanker have been teased out after read literatures and summarized the collected information.And then teachers of Navigation College are invited to provide feedback on the summarized factors afterwards,and revamp and reform the evaluation indicators.Finally,human factors,tanker factors,environmental factors and management factors are chosen as the first-level indicators,detail 13 second-level indicators and 7 third-level indicators to establish the oil spill risk evaluating system for tanker;(2)Establish a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on fuzzy mathematics and mathematical statistics with improved analytic hierarchy process.The weights of each index are directly calculated through the optimal transfer matrix and the pseudo-optimal consistency matrix which has avoid the adjustment error from traditional analytic hierarchy process when it does not meet consistency test;(3)Calculate the oil spill risk of oil tankers passed by Shenzhen Port through Python programming.308 tankers have been sorted out from the relevant data and used for the oil spill risk analysis of the tanker.The specific information that used for calculating have been supplemented through the "chuanxun" website.The oil spill rik of 308 tankers passed by in the primary three oil product ports of the Shenzhen Port have been calculated afterwards through the Python program,and used correlation analysis to find out the difference impact on three ports of environment factors:(4)Finally,according to the results of the oil spill risk of the tanker,the corresponding countermeasures for reducing the oil spill risk of the tanker and strengthening the accident prevention measures are proposed.